Research On The Trade Status And Factors Between China And The "The Belt And Road" Countries

Under the new background of "The belt and road",bilateral trade between China and the countries along "the belt and road" has more in-depth cooperation.Expanding trade scale is the focus of China's economic development at this stage.China ranks second in the world in GDP and the largest developing country in the world,China's foreign trade situation has also undergone tremendous changes before and after the "The belt and road" initiative.At the same time,in order to play the role of a responsible big country,China also plans to build many regional economic cooperation organizations.The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Asian Investment Bank are all actively organized and participated by China.This article mainly analyzes the trade status of China and the countries along the belt and road in terms of bilateral trade volume and industrial structure.Then,based on the trade situation,we will make an empirical analysis of the factors affecting China's trade with the countries.A large number of experts and scholars at home and abroad use gravity model to study the factors affecting trade.For the first time,the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Asian Investment Bank,which may affect bilateral trade volume,are introduced into the model as virtual variables,focusing on the quantitative impact of these two organizations on bilateral trade.This paper regards GDP,population,transportation distance between countries along the route and China,whether the two sides of trade are close to each other,whether they join the World Trade Organization,whether they join APEC,whether they join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and whether they join the Asian Investment Bank as the influencing factors of bilateral trade,and uses gravity model to make regression analysis.The results show that GDP,joining the Shanghai cooperation organization and joining the Asian investment bank have a positive impact on China's trade development along the "The belt and road ".By comparing the theoretical trade value calculated with the actual trade value,we find the potential trade value of China along the "one belt and one road" line.The trade potential of China and the countries along the belt and road has normal type and trade potential type,and makes specific analysis according to different situations.This has greatly enriched the theoretical significance of the "The belt and road" initiative and targeted policy recommendations.