The Analysis Of China-ASEAN Bilateral Trade Situation And Influencing Factors Based On ‘The Belt And Road' Initiative

Nowadays,with the interfernce of globalization and anti-globalization,President Xi proposed the "the Belt and Road" initiative in 2013,carrying out deeply in trade fields and construction engineering fields.ASEAN,as the countries under the context of "the Belt and Road",has launched various strategic cooperation between China and ASEAN.China and ASEAN have been playing the bilateral resources and comparative advantages in the context of the "the Belt and Road" policy.Meanwhile,China-ASEAN strategic partnership has been keeping 15 years,and the development of CAFTA has enabled both to reduce and exempt most of their tariffs on products,and has launched in-depth cooperation in the field of trade in services and investment.It is analyzed that the bilateral product trade and the factors that would affect bilateral trade based on "the Belt and Road".In the analysis of bilateral trade situation,the absolute amount of bilateral imports,exports and total imports and exports were analyzed,and the growth rate of trade and the relative volume of trade volume with other major trading partners were analyzed.At the same time,the competitive effects and complementary effects of bilateral trade were calculated;And it is used the relevant data of China-ASEAN bilateral trade situation from 2003 to 2018 to form panel data,while introducing GDP variables,geographical distance variables,China's OFDI to ASEAN variables,virtual variables of the development of CAFTA,common language and BIT.Finally,based on the analysis,it is concluded that " the belt and road" initiative has a positive role in promoting bilateral trade between China and ASEAN.Meanwhile,according to gravity model,factors affecting bilateral trade include bilateral economic strength,geographical distance,China's FDI,exchange rate volatility,ASEAN's infrastructure level,common language,CAFTA and BIT.Also,it is suggested that promoting the growth of bilateral product trade between China and ASEAN from the perspectives of giving full play to comparative advantages,deepening the development of " community" and combining market with government are crucial for the bilateral trade development.