Research On The Influencing Factors And Potentials Of Agricultural Products Trade Between China And Central Asia Under The "One Belt And One Road" Strategy

On September 7,2013,President Xi Jinping presented a "Silk Road Economic Belt",the"One Belt,One Road" initiative,in a public speech by President Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan.To promote the cooperation and development of China and Central Asian countries,and to promote the economic development of China’s central and western provinces,and enhance the opening up of the central and western regions.Although the five Central Asian countries are bordered by China,the bilateral agricultural trade volume has been small,and the“One Belt,One Road”initiative has not changed much since its introduction.In 2016,the trade volume of agricultural products between China and the five Central Asian countries was less than 900 million US dollars.In the same period,China and ASEAN agricultural trade exceeded 30 billion US dollars.At the same time,China and the five Central Asian countries have a small and concentrated agricultural product trade.China mainly imports Uzbek cotton and exports vegetables and fruits to Central Asian countries.This trade pattern is not normal with bilateral geography and compared with other regions,thus affecting our long-term diplomatic,political and economic interests,so we need to pay attention.For this reason,we need to find out the factors affecting agricultural trade between China and Central Asian countries,study the potential of bilateral agricultural trade,promote the healthy development of bilateral trade,maintain bilateral strategic partnerships,achieve bilateral mutual benefit,and promote the“Belt and Road Initiative”initiative.Implementation.Based on the theoretical knowledge of international trade in agricultural products,based on the relevant literature review,this paper first analyzes the agricultural trade between China and the five Central Asian countries through trade data such as uncomtrade,and finds that the agricultural trade between China and the five Central Asian countries has long been concentrated.In a few products,the trade import and export quota is small and showing a downward trend.Secondly,the factors affecting the agricultural trade between China and the five Central Asian countries were qualitatively analyzed from the aspects of politics,economy and culture.This paper argues that China’s decline in agricultural exports to Central Asia is driven by the "One Belt,One Road" initiative,in which Chinese companies build agricultural parks in Central Asia and directly produce and sell agricultural products locally.The decline in imports is due to the current oversupply of agricultural products in China,and the country is undergoing reforms in the supply side of agrnculture.Again,with the help of the trade gravity model,an empirical study on the factors affecting agricultural trade between China and the five Central Asian countries in the context of the "Belt and Road" was carried out and the trade potential was calculated.The factors affecting bilateral trade are very complicated.Under the“Belt and Road Initiative”initiative,this paper mainly selects bilateral GDP,population,agricultural cultivated land area,distance,total railway mileage,SCO and borderline.The total number of railways is a key explanatory variable reflecting the"Belt and Road Initiative".After analysis,it is found that the investment in railway facilities has a significant impact on bilateral import,export and import and export of agrncultural products,and accounts for more than 50%of total imports and exports.Textile fiber and vegetable and fruit products also have significant effects.From the results of potential calculations,Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have mature trade potential and have low potential;while Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are potential types of trade potential with great potential.Based on the above research results,the relevant policy recommendations were finally put forward.For example,strengthen the "One Belt and One Road" policy propaganda in Central Asia,Strengthen trade with Central Asia and promote trade growth,develop characteristic agricultural products,broaden trade varieties,promote infrastructure construction in Central Asia,and strengthen trade in agricultural products in Wu,Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.Development and so on.