An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Crude Oil Futures Internationalization On RMB Internationalization

The official launch of RMB crude oil futures in Shanghai international energy center is a step of far-reaching strategic significance for the internationalization of China's RMB.Oil futures account for almost a third of global futures trading,while WTI contracts traded on the nyse annually account for about eight times the world's total oil production.The pricing power of oil futures has been firmly held by NYMEX's WTI oil futures and ICE's brent oil futures.What is the impact of China's oil futures on the internationalization of the yuan? How does Chinese crude oil futures promote the internationalization of RMB? Based on previous studies,this paper analyzes the correlation between RMB crude oil futures and RMB internationalization based on the grey correlation analysis model and grey GM(1,3)model,and forecasts the relevant indicators of RMB internationalization,and finally draws a conclusion.In the theoretical part,this article expounds the commodities internationalization and RMB internationalization related content,including commodities international background,difficulties and challenges,the crude oil futures market development course of RMB internationalization development course,achievement and existing problems,and the experience of other countries currency internationalization enlightenment and petrodollars on oil experience and lessons of the yuan.In the empirical analysis part,this article selects the Hong Kong offshore RMB deposit,cross-border yuan trade settlement,foreign direct investment,foreign direct investment and China's import and export trade as the relevant indicators of RMB internationalization,crude oil futures trading volume,turnover and holdings as a representative of the international crude oil futures related indicators.The first to use grey correlation model,the international crude oil futures and the internationalisation of the renminbi's absolute correlation degree and relative incidence degree and relational grade,on the basis of the crude oil futures holdings and RMB internationalization degree of correlation is the highest,while crude oil futures trading volume and turnover is associated with RMB internationalization is medium.Therefore,China can further promote the internationalization of RMB by paying attention to the position of crude oil futures.And then USES the grey GM(1,3)model,based on the crude oil futures related data for the Hong Kong offshore RMB deposit,cross-border yuan trade settlement,foreign direct investment,foreign direct investment and China's total import and export trade over the next ten months data to forecast,analysis of prediction results carried out at the same time,explore the reasons for the unsteady data.Finally,according to the theoretical analysis and empirical research results,the thesis content is summarized and prospected.Combined with the development of petrodollars and theglobal economic situation,this paper puts forward policy Suggestions on the development of China's crude oil futures,hoping to drive the internationalization of RMB through crude oil futures.