Research On The Investment Risk Control Of Long-rent Apartment

With the further expansion of China's floating population to large and mediumsized cities and the upgrading of housing consumption demand for young people,longterm rental apartments,with their institutionalized and professional operation and management model,which can effectively increase the supply of rental housing and meet the high-quality housing consumption needs of the mobile group.Nowadays the long-term rental apartments has became an important area of real estate development in China.In recent years,government has taken many measures to encourage the development of long-term rental apartments,including land,finance,and taxation to promote the rapid development of the long-rental apartment industry.With the upward trend of long-term rental apartments,the news of the outbreak of investment risks appeared frequently in newspapers.For example Dingjia Apartment blindly expanded with the abuse of “rental loans”,which led to the break of the capital chain in August 2018,which has attracted wide attention from all fields of society.This paper takes the investment risk of long-term apartment projects as the research object,and focuses on the identification,evaluation and control of investment risks of long-term apartment projects.Firstly,this paper sorts out the development of China's long-rent apartment development,investment mode and investment environment,and divides the investment model of long-term apartment in China into different investment characteristics.Secondly,through the investigation of long-term apartment projects and analysis of related case,the risk affecting long-term apartment cash flow are identified.The formation of long-rent apartment investment risk is analyzed.Again,Monte Carlo simulation method is used to estimate the investment risk of long-rent apartments in different modes,and the investment risk of long-term apartment is evaluated by sensitivity analysis and risk value analysis;Finally,it proposes a targeted strategy for China's long-term apartment investment risk management.Based on the above analysis,we can draw the following conclusions:(1)There is a large risk for China's long-term rental apartment investment,through the long-rent apartment investment analysis,we can found that China's long-term rental apartments have low real investment returns and long payback period.In current situation where real estate industry is lack of project seceding,the long payback period makes the longterm apartment risk factors accumulate easily,which leads to investment risks.(2)Under different modes,the risk rate of long-term apartment investment risk is also different.The study found that the cumulative probability of investment risk and the value at risk(VaR)of heavy-asset centralized long-term apartment projects are higher than light asset-centred long-term apartment project;(3)The investment risk of longterm apartment investment is different under different investment modes.In the Monte Carlo risk simulation,it shows that the heavy asset centralized investment risk factors mainly affects property construction,purchase and Renovation costs,light assets concentrated investment risk factors mainly focus on rental income,renovation costs and management costs;(4)To control long-term apartment investment risk needs to take many measures,because the investment risk of long-term apartment investment can be affected from high uncertainty of investment environment,complex of investment subjects,and diversity of investment modes,so we should take various measures and strategies to control investment risks.