Research On The Complementarity And Trade Potential Of China-Africa Commodity Trade

With the continuous development of global economic integration,cooperation between countries has deepened,and the trade in goods between developed countries such as China and the West is close to saturation,and it is difficult to expand new areas of cooperation.At this time,China needs to seek more partners and create a new situation of cooperation and win-win.It is not difficult to find that African countries are the best choice for us to open up overseas markets.First of all,most countries in Africa and China are developing countries,and they have always been China's political partners.It is also the trend of the times to develop more cooperation in the economic field..Secondly,because China and African countries have great differences in production factor endowment,industrial structure and product import and export structure,China and Africa have strong trade complementarity in the field of commodity trade.Therefore,in the context of the current deep integration of the economy,the cooperation of China-Africa merchandise trade will be a favorable point for the common development of China-Africa economy.The scale of merchandise trade will continue to expand,which will not only promote China's current economic transformation and upgrading,but also Can stimulate the local economic development in Africa.This paper first analyzes the international and domestic background of China-Africa merchandise trade development.Today,over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's opening up to the outside world has deepened,and the construction of the Belt and Road has also linked us with more developing countries.Cooperation in the field of commodity trade in African countries is also a icing on the cake,mutual benefit and win-win situation.From the theoretical and practical aspects,through the combination of relevant trade theories,such as comparative advantage theory,factor endowment theory,intra-industry trade theory,dynamic comparative advantage,the analysis of the main reasons for the trade of China-Africa merchandise is mainly the existence of China-Africa merchandise trade.Strong complementarity.Secondly,through combing and summarizing the existing research status at home and abroad,it summarizes the research experiences of other scholars on the bilateral trade complementarity and trade potential between China and other countries,clarifies the research ideas and research methods,and determines the complementarity of commodity trade.The entry point is an in-depth study of the complementarity and trade potential of China-Africa trade cooperation.Thirdly,using trade theory as the theoretical basis for the study of trade complementarity and trade potential,this paper further analyzes the status quo of China-Africa merchandise trade,including the trend of trade volume,trade structure characteristics,etc.Through research,it is found that the trade volume between China and Africa is growing.Trade has developed rapidly,but there are also some problems.The merchandise trade structure is relatively simple,and the comparative advantages of the two sides cannot be fully utilized,making the cooperation areas more limited.Then,through the data of the United Nations Statistics Department's Commodity Trade Database,based on the data of China-Africa import and export trade between 2007 and2017,using the trade integration index,the display comparative advantage index,the intra-industry trade index and other measurement tools,combined with China and African countries.The commodity structure of the trade was analyzed.Finally,through the 1980-2017China-Africa trade data,the ARMA model was established to make short-term forecasts for China-Africa trade volume.Through the research on the status quo of China-Africa merchandise trade,combined with the analysis of various indexes and ARMA,the following conclusions are drawn.First,through the measurement of the trade index,the trade integration between China and Africa is high,and Africa's export dependence on China is higher.China's trade integration with Africa is also steadily rising,and cooperation is getting closer and closer.There are differences in the display comparative advantage index between the two places.The commodity trade structure is highly complementary.China includes manufactured products classified by raw materials(SITC6),mainly manufactured products,and miscellaneous products(SITC8).Goods with machinery and transport equipment(SITC7)have a competitive advantage in the world market,Africa in food and live animals(SITC0),non-edible raw materials(excluding fuel)(SITC2),fossil fuels,lubricants and related raw materials(SITC3)has an export advantage.Second,from the results of the intra-industry trade index,China and Africa have a significant intra-industry trade trend in the finished products classified by raw materials(SITC6).Third,through the ARMA model,it can be concluded that although the trade volume between China and Africa will slightly float in the near future,the overall growth trend is shown.In response to the above conclusions,at the end of the article,the following policy recommendations were put forward.China should first make full use of the complementarity of commodity trade with African countries and optimize trade structure exchanges.Secondly,it should strengthen political communication with Africa and reduce trade friction.Finally,We must vigorously promote the sound and healthy coordinated development of China-Africa trade and economic cooperation,and create a new situation in China-Africa economic and trade prosperity.