Research On China Factor In The International Commodity Price Fluctuations

Since the 21st century,the international commodity prices shows the characteristics of volatile,commodities as an important strategic resource,its price fluctuation also has been praised by all parties concerned.With China's rapid economic development,and supply shortage of domestic resources,for a number of important commodities imported relies on the international market,because China's economy is in a stage of rapid development of urbanization and industrialization,the huge demand for commodities also makes commodity price volatility has more and more influence on China's macro economy.However,our country in the international market has been a lack of commodity pricing power,often in the face of "buy high/sell low" passive situation,and take the risk of rising commodity pr:ices at any time.Would China factor affect the fluctuations in commodity prices,how can it impact prices,in the current situation in our country how to make the commodity strategy properly,how to improve our country on the international commodity pricing power?Based on these problems,this article discussed through both theoretical and empirical aspects.This article first introduces the classification of the commodities,as well as domestic and foreign futures exchange that has the pricing function,reviews the commodity prices trend features in the recent ten years,to better understand the commodity market development present situation.Then from commodity goods and financial attribute two perspective,combed the theory frame about the factors affecting commodity price fluctuations,mainly covers the supply and demand,monetary policy,speculative factors as well as the linkage between market factors,which laid a foundation for later empirical analysis.Then,the article by Johansen cointegration relationship test,Granger causality test and vector error correction model(VECM)related test methods,and through comparing the form of group,factors affecting the commodity price fluctuations of China has carried on the empirical analysis,get some preliminary conclusions.First,regardless of whether contain China factor,the demand of the real economy are the dominant factors driving rising commodity prices,after add China,the effects of economic fundamentals stronger.Second,if deduct China factor in the construction of a model,the result is deviation,China factor may affect the fluctuations in commodity prices,but the effect of Chinese demand and liquidity should be less than the developed economies.Third,the financial commodity attribute is growing,the commodity market and the stock market does exist linkage effect of the mutual influence,China's stock market fluctuations will also affect the international commodities markets.Finally,combining with the theoretical framework and empirical analysis conclusion,for our country to cope with the international commodity price fluctuations,increase pricing power in the international market put forward feasible suggestions.