Price Fluctuation Of Rare Earth Oxide Products In China And Its Cause Analysis

The topic of this paper comes from the regional project of the Ministry of Management Science of the National Natural Science Foundation of China,"Research on Early Warning System and Response Mechanism of Rare Earth Resources Strategic Reserve"(Project No.71263022).In the process of researching the strategic reserve of rare earth resources,because of the large number of rare earth products and the large fluctuation of the price of rare earth products,it is difficult to store rare earth resources in China.When and at what price is a major problem to be solved at present.Therefore,through the analysis of the causes of price fluctuation of rare earth oxide products,this paper aims to improve and enrich the research on this subject.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,referring to the literature on price theory and volatility theory,combining with the research on the characteristics and causes of price fluctuation of other products,this paper analyses the price fluctuation of rare earth oxide products from a theoretical point of view.Empirically,this paper collects the annual price data of neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide products for 30 years from 1987 to 2017,and constructs an H-P filtering analysis model.The long-term fluctuation cycle characteristics of rare earth oxide products were quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the price series of neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide have experienced at least two complete cycles,and their peaks and valleys are consistent in time.Neodymium oxide has stronger market regulation ability than dysprosium oxide.When the price of rare earth oxide products is low,the price of neodymium oxide will take the lead out of the low price storm.Secondly,151 monthly price data of neodymium oxide were collected from January2006 to July 2018.The monthly price data of neodymium oxide were analyzed by using ARCH model to illustrate the short-term fluctuation of the price of rare earth oxide products in China.The results of GARCH(1,1)model show that the fluctuation of monthly price series of neodymium oxide is mainly influenced by the previous price data,and the degree of influence reaches 93.56%.That is to say,the price series of neodymium oxide exhibits volatility aggregation,which means that the price series of neodymium oxide of rare earth usually fluctuates immediately after a large fluctuation;GARCH(1,1)—M results show that neodymium oxide of rare earth has a large fluctuation.There is no obvious functional relationship between price return rate and risk,that is,price return rate does not exist the situation that the higher the risk,the greater the return rate.The empirical results of TARCHand EARCH models show that the role of information in rare earth oxide products market is asymmetric,and the news of price decline of the same scale will cause greater price fluctuations than the news of price rise.It reached 37.24%.Thirdly,in this paper,the influence of supply and demand of rare earth,concentration of rare earth industry,rare earth related policies and other factors on price fluctuation cycle of rare earth oxide products in China is discussed.The analysis shows that these four factors are the main factors to form the price fluctuation trajectory of rare earth oxide products in China.