| Under the background of economic globalization,export trade has special importance to a countrys national economy,and exchange rate plays a very important role in influencing the changes of export trade.It performs the function of price conversion in international financial and trade activities,and thus becomes an important lever to adjust a country's trade balance.Its changes have a profound impact on the balance of foreign trade and the fluctuation of domestic economic activities.Therefore,the study on the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on export trade has always been a major subject of extensive research in international economics,and has been highly valued by all countries in the world.On July 21,2005,China implemented an important reform of the RMB exchange rate system.The RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate against the US dollar.As a key export industry,the operation and management of textile enterprises have been greatly affected and impacted.Based on the literature on exchange rate-related issues at home and abroad,this paper collected import and export data from 2004 to 2017 in China's textile industry,and used GARCH model to estimate the impact of exchange rate changes on textile industry exports.The cointegration model was applied to test the causality and conduction between exchange rate change and export growth in textile industry.At the same time,the conclusion is drawn from the typical case analysis of textile industry and the corresponding strategy suggestions are put forward.Through the research of this paper,it not only enriches the theoretical research on the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the textile industry in China,but also has practical significance for how to effectively adopt various prevention and control measures to avoid exchange rate risks.The innovation of this paper lies in empirical analysis combined with case analysis and analysis from the perspective of Zhejiang pillar industry textile industry. |
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