| According to the statistics from General Administration of Custom of China, the amount of the export of textile and clothes is $2065.3 in 2010, increasing by 23.6%, accounting for about 13% of China's gross export. The fix investment per 0.1 billion RMB attracts the employment 932 on the average, with the textile 1872 and clothes 4464, 2.1 and 4.79 times of the average respectively. The export of China textile and clothes was only $95 billion, the amount of the direct workers in the whole industry is almost 19 million, accounting for 23% of the total employment of all the manufacturing. The export doubles by that in 2010, the employment is over 20 million. The news site the word of people in charge in Commercial Department of China: the industry of China textile and clothes is a key traditional industry in the national economy, important for the welfare of the people, and an industry of competitive in the world, making a great role in expanding the export and attracting the employment. By the year 2010, this industry had already attracted 20 million workers, with 80% farmer workers. It is speeding up, with the key status.However, in the recent years, it is a comment think that, a series of negative factors, such as the appreciation of RMB to U.S. dollar, the price rise of the production element, the reduction of the tax rebate, the tightening of the monetary policy, the U.S. sub prime crisis and so on, strike China's export trade of textile and clothes, which makes a grim development of the enterprises of the textile and clothes industry. Most of the enterprises, especially the SME (small & middle enterprises) are at the edge of loss. Most scholars back up the pessimistic emotion in the conclusion of their study. But it is an obvious theory paradox that the textile and clothes export speed with this kind of study conclusion.Action is the standard to test the theory! It is a truth that, the method of most study of textile and clothes is wrong. The reason is that they applied the bilateral exchange rate of RMB to US$ to study the gross export of China textile and clothes.To study the characteristic of China textile & clothes accurately and find the inner reason of the speeding growing of China textile and clothes at the condition of appreciation of RMB, this paper uses the 2005~2009 quarterly data, referring to kinds of perspectives and calculating methods, adopting 6 sample currencies such as Euro, U.S. Dollar , Japan Yen, English Pound, Korea Won and Russia Rubles, applying the calculating method of weighted geometric mean, to calculate the textile effective exchange rate index of RMB in the years between 2005~2009. The result shows that the textile exchange rate of RMB devaluates as a whole between the year 2005 and 2009. This paper goes forward to establish an export model of China's textile & clothes, combining with the textile exchange rate calculated, applying the Granger causality test, co-integration analysis, error correction model, variance decomposition and impulse response function, to make a series of empirical studies.The conclusion of this paper is that: the textile exchange rate devaluates as the exchange rate of RMB to US$ valuates. In the years between 2005~2009, RMB's textile exchange rate affected the export trade of China's textile & clothes apparently after the hysterics effect(Although growing unstably respectively), there existed a stable long-term relationship between RMB's textile exchange rate, the weighted revenue of the trading countries and the real export of China's textile & clothes. The real export would rise 0.45% as the textile exchange rate devaluated 1% in the long term, and the real export showed a positive response upon the impulse of devaluation of RMB's textile exchange rate and achieved the maximum effect after one year. This paper's conclusion explains the speedy growing of China's textile & clothes. |
PDF Full Text Request