The Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Manufacturing Industry Listing Corporation

With the complication of macro and micro environment,the competition among enterprises becomes more and more vigorous.Enterprises are facing opportunities and challenges.In this context,the financial risk of enterprises is increasing gradually,and the importance of financial crisis early warning is gradually emerging.Listed manufacturing companies in China have more resources,occupying a vital position,and their development affects the hearts of the people.Therefore,it is necessary to explore an effective financial crisis early warning system which is suitable for listed manufacturing companies.The aim is to warn before a crisis occurs,avoid potential risks evolving into real losses,and improve the ability of enterprises to prepare for the rainy day.A large number of scholars have done relevant research on financial crisis early warning based on traditional financial statements.However,financial statements for management distinguish business activities into financial activities and business activities,which help to analyze the profitability of the company’s core business,and provide a new perspective for the early warning of financial crisis.So this paper mainly adopts management financial statements to establish a financial crisis early-warning model for listed manufacturing companies in China.Firstly,135 manufacturing enterprises that had been ST or * ST for the first time in 2013-2018 were selected as crisis enterprises.And 135 normal enterprises were selected as matching samples according to the principles of the same industry,the same total assets scale(10%increase or decrease)and the same period at the end of the year before ST.Then,based on the traditional financial statements and financial statements for management,the financial crisis early warning index system is constructed.And R&D capability index and corporate social responsibility index are added to the non-financial indicators.Finally,after screening the relevant indicators with SPSS22.0 software,we use factor analysis and logistic regression to build an early warning model,and test the financial crisis early warning model of manufacturing enterprises.The results show that the prediction accuracy of financial crisis early warning model based on traditional financial statements and financial crisis early warning model based on management financial statements are 90.9% and 97%,respectively.The prediction accuracy and model fitting degree of financial crisis early warning model based on management financial statements are better than those based on traditional financial statements to a certain extent.Without denying the traditional financial crisis early warning model,this result provides a new idea for enterprises to establish financial crisis early warning model.Future related research can be improved in depth and breadth of samples,subdividing manufacturing industries or selecting samples from other industries for research.It can also combine empirical research with case analysis,and put it into practice so as to provide early warning for enterprises accurately and efficiently.