County-level Housing Price-income Ratio Study In The Yangtze River Delta

This study based on housing price to income ratio index calculation,183 counties in the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration residents of housing price to income ratio of time and space differentiation characteristics,rationality and correlation research,designed to help the government to local conditions,formulate related regulation policy,improve the living conditions of the residents of Yangtze river delta,so as to better promote the construction of Chinese urban sustainable development.The higher the housing price/income ratio index is,the greater the housing purchase pressure is,and the poorer the housing affordability is.With the help of anjuke and other online platforms,this study collected a total of 4,128 pieces of housing price and income data,and conducted a relatively novel study on the affordability of house purchase at the district and county level.This paper mainly has the following conclusions:(1)the house-price/income ratio of each district and county in the Yangtze river delta conforms to the rank-scale distribution.There are significant differences among districts and counties,and the house-price income ratio of different districts and counties in the same city also has great differences.But the difference between districts and counties is narrowing,the leading edge of the first district and county weakened.(2)the center of housing price/income ratio index is located in the middle and east of the whole Yangtze river delta,and the center of gravity migrates to the southwest with a small range,indicating that the affordability of residents in the west of the Yangtze river delta is better than that in the east,while the pressure of residents in the southwest rises rapidly.(3)the overall spatial distribution of the county-level house-price/income ratio in the Yangtze river delta region is uneven.The districts and counties with relatively high housing price and income show a pattern of "large dispersion and small concentration" in space,mainly composed of Shanghai,Nanjing,Hangzhou and Hefei and surrounding districts and counties.The counties with low housing price and income are mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Yangtze river delta,most of which belong to Anhui.The housing price income ratio of each district and county in the same city has certain differences,especially the big difference between the central city and the suburb,and the geographical location of the district and county.The house purchase pressure will radiate from the high-pressure area to the surrounding area,thus affecting the affordability of residents in the adjacent area.(4)the overall characteristics of the change of county-level housing price/income ratio in the last two years in the Yangtze river delta region are "stable with a decrease".The majority of districts and counties remain stable,some of them decrease slightly,a few of them decrease significantly,and none of them increase.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the significant decline area,slight rise area and significant rise area are all relatively scattered,while the slight decline area is relatively concentrated,showing a north-south cluster distribution.(5)In the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration,the pain-type districts and counties are mainly distributed in the east coast of the Yangtze river delta,mainly in the districts and counties of Shanghai.The happy-type districts and counties are dispersed in space.The peach-source districts and counties are mainly distributed in the neighboring Taicang city,Kunshan city,Pinghu city and Jiashan county.(6)The number of struggling and comfortable districts and counties in the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration is far greater than that of stressed and comfortable,with obvious characteristics.Struggling type is mainly distributed in the east coast and central part of the Yangtze river delta,which is distributed in an agglomeration pattern.In 2017,Shanghai districts and counties are the main ones,and in 2018,Hangzhou districts and counties will rapidly rise,forming a "Shanghai-Hangzhou" dual-core pattern.The comfortable type districts and counties are mainly distributed in the west and north of the Yangtze river delta,and their spatial distribution is relatively fragmented.Comfortable district county only rain mountain area,heavy pressure district county only Shanghai Chongming district.(7)At the provincial level,the pressure of Shanghai residents to buy a house is far greater than that of the other three provinces,while the difference among Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui provinces is not significant,and the affordability of residents to buy a house is similar.Judging from the rationality,in 2017 and 2018,Shanghai belongs to the extremely high housing purchase pressure range,while the other three provinces belong to the relatively high housing purchase pressure range,which is unreasonable.From the perspective of the municipal level,the affordability rationality of older triangle residents in 2017 was 11.54%,which decreased to 3.85% in 2018.In addition,from 2017 to 2018,the housing income ratio of more than 90% of cities expanded,the pressure of residents to buy houses kept increasing,and the housing price income ratio of very few cities decreased.From the perspective of district and county level,the rationality of purchasing affordability of older triangle residents in 2017 is 7.65%,and that in 2018 is 3.83%,indicating that the purchasing affordability of residents in Yangtze river delta is still low,and the purchasing capability is weakening,and the purchasing pressure is rising.In general,no matter from the provincial level,municipal level or district and county level scale analysis and research,the rationality of residents' affordability of house purchase is always lower than 12%,which is unreasonable.(8)As verified by person correlation analysis,the regional economic development level and the number of permanent residents are both strongly correlated with the affordability of house purchase,and the economic development level is more correlated than the number of permanent residents.The more developed the economy,the more permanent population of the district and county can afford to buy a house the worse.In addition,the housing price policy is also an important factor affecting residents' affordability.Taking Shanghai as an example,the housing price to income ratio of all districts and counties in Shanghai has decreased significantly since the third quarter of 2017.The main reason is that the Shanghai government,under the guidance of the central government,has issued a series of housing price control policies to lower the housing price and reduce residents' pressure to buy houses.