Research On The Effect Led By The Shadow Banking To The Stability Of The Commercial Banking System In China

Since the international financial crisis,the shadow banking business has become the focus of attention in the domestic and foreign financial circles.The shadow banking scale in China is expanding in a specific environment and period,and its position in China's financial market is becoming increasingly prominent.The essence of shadow banking in China is loan-like business.It forms a complementary relationship with traditional banks.Its characteristics of dependence on banks and out of supervision have a certain impact on the stability of commercial banks.On the one hand,the rapid development of shadow banks has accelerated the business innovation of commercial banks.While developing off-balance-sheet business,commercial banks have increased their profit and optimized their income structure.At the same time,because of its own characteristics of regulatory arbitrage,the strict regulatory for traditional banks often fail to work on shadow banks,which will greatly reduce the effect of the central bank's regulatory policies and affect the stability of commercial banks.Therefore,the content of this paper has important theoretical and practical significance.Firstly,this paper measures the stability of 46 sample commercial banks in the 11-year period from 2007 to 2017 by the comprehensive index scoring method,and constructs a commercial bank stability index which can measure the stability of commercial banks.On this basis,the panel data model is used to empirically analyze the impact of the scale expansion of shadow banks on the stability of 46 representative commercial banks and different types of commercial banks.Empirical research shows that the stability index of Chinese commercial banks can be adjusted by the size of shadow banks to some extent.They show a significant inverted U-shaped relationship.Therefore,properly expanding the size of shadow banks in the current period will help to improve the stability index of commercial banks.Although the development of shadow banking will bring some risks,as long as the regulations improved,the negative effects and risks brought by shadow banking will be effectively prevented,and the good growth of national economy can be promoted on the basis of maintaining the stability of commercial banks.