Scenario Simulation Of Land Use Change In Chuxiong City Under Water Resources Constraints

With global warming,water shortages will be rising,economic,ecological and human food security will be threatened by produced from water shortages,and even national security,social security and the survival of human security is also affected by water shortages.Reveal the changing rule of the shortage of water resources under the condition of regional land use simulations to predict the change of land use,and can help human beings by adjusting the land use ways to cope with the water shortage problem.This has become a global change and regional hotspot issues in the study of the response.Chuxiong city is located in the plateau water diversion zone,water mainly from precipitation.IN recent years,due to the shrinking of precipitation,leading to the scarce water resources,several years of severe drought.This not only hindered the development of agriculture,but also affected the industrial structure and social and economic development of Chuxiong,water resources has become an important factor in the sustainable development of social economy in Chuxiong.To adapt to the influence of water shortages,become chuxiong city must face the problems of regional sustainable development.Therefore,this study chooses Chuxiong city as a typical plateau area as the study area,analysis of water resources on the population,economic and land use and land use restriction,using system dynamics model of Chuxiong city economy and land use change after 2016-2025 years of different water resources restriction degree of population,shortage of water resources,provide the basis for to realize the sustainable development of Chuxiong city to and for prediction of land use and land use on water resources shortage adaptation on a case study in Plateau area.Using water as a constraint condition,research the demand change of cultivated land and land for residential areas and mining in the study area.Through the Vensim PLE 6.3 construction land use system dynamics model of water resources under theconstraints of preset two types and four subtypes of water resource constraints,development of the 18 scenarios of water resources of population and social economy system,the simulation of Chuxiong City 18 development scenarios of 2016-2020 years of land use change,at the end of the the simulation results are analyzed.The results are as follows:(1)The total water supply and water consumption per capita impact on population growth are smaller.(2)The effect of the total water supply and Yuan Industrial GDP water consumption on GDP growth are significant.(3)The total amount of water supply had no significant effect on the cultivated land area,and the per capita water consumption,grain yield per unit area and industrial water consumption per million GDP were not sensitive to the change of total water supply.(4)Population growth and GDP growth will increase the urban village and industrial land area.(5)Comparison of 18 kinds of development scenarios,combined with the city of Chuxiong,"13th Five-Year" economic and social development planning objectives,B2(technology progress,population and economic growth rate steadily)scenario is more suitable for the future development of Chuxiong city.