Research On Risk Spillover Effect Of Real Estate Industry On Banking Industry

The real estate industry is China's pillar industry,The vigorous development of China's economy in the past 20 years cannot be separated from the driving role of the real estate industry.However,while driving economic development,excessive speculation has caused real estate prices to gradually exceed their actual value,and real estate risks have continued to accumulate.As a very typical capital-intensive industry,the connection between the real estate industry and the banking industry is very close.Once the real estate industry is at risk,the banks that are the core of China's financial system will surely be affected,and can easily trigger systemic financial risks.Therefore,a systematic study of the risk spillover effect of real estate on the banking industry is of great significance in preventing and resolving systemic financial risks and maintaining macroeconomic stability.Based on the theoretical analysis and the CoVaR model,this paper measures the risk spillover intensity of the banking industry in the real estate industry,and summarizes its trend characteristics.The thesis mainly includes the following parts:First,the author summarizes and sorts out the existing researches,and then introduces the financial theory and empirical methods used in the research process,and defines the connotation of tthe real estate risk and it's spillover effect to the banking;secondly,the author describes the real estate industry development status and the relationship between real estate and banking industry in combination with specific data,and builds a real estate risk index through factor analysis,then measured the risk level of real estate industry with this index,found that the risk level of China's real estate has been rising since the beginning of the new century,as the risk level of the real estate inventory problem has decreased in recend,it has remained at a high level;Thirdly,based on the theories of financial fragility,information asymmetry and behavioral finance,the author explores the ways and main factors that affect the risk spillover of real estate,and then uses the CoVaR model to study the risk spillover effect of real estate on the banking industry,found that the risk spillover of real estate to the banking industry has been maintained at a relatively high level,and has declined in the past two years with the strengthening of regulatory policies and financial regulation.,and with obvious time-varying characteristics;finally,on the basis of the above research,it is proposed that on the one hand,real estate risks should be controlled by guiding the real estate market to return to separation and equilibrium,and suppressing speculative demand;on the other hand,it must strengthen financial institutions.The prudent and prudent operation,strengthening the control and management of real estate credit risk,and diversifying financing channels to curb the risk spillover effect of real estate on the banking sector,and avoiding the systemic financial crisis triggered by real estate risks.