Early Warning And Prevention Of Enterprise Financial Risk Based On Cash Flow

With the unceasing development of Chinese economy,the overall demand for housing has been growing on the whole.The real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economic development,which is closely related to everyone's life.The large fluctuation of the industry will cause the imbalance of the national economy and destroy the stability of the society.As a typical capital-intensive industry,the real estate industry has the characteristics of large demand for financing,long turnover cycle and strong policy orientation.In addition,the funds needed for real estate development mainly come from bank loans,pre-sale loans,equity financing and other commercial loans,which make it more financial risk than other industries.Therefore,in the daily operation of real estate enterprises,it is of great significance to study how to prevent financial risks for the healthy and sustainable development of real estate enterprises.The first part introduces the research background,purpose and significance of the paper,including cash flow concept and the relevant theory of financial risk,then the research status of cash flow risk warning at home and abroad is classified.In the case analysis part,firstly,the financial situation of Shandong merchants' real estate industry from 2009 to 2017 is calculated and analyzed by combining Z-China early warning model and F-score early warning model.Then,cash flow related indicators are used to analyze its solvency,profitability,cash-earning ability and growth ability from three aspects: business activities,fund-raising activities and investment activities.The average level is compared to determine the source of the real estate risk of Shandong merchants.Finally,according to the possible financial risks of Shandong merchant's real estate industry,this paper puts forward the corresponding specific preventive measures from three angles of business activities,financing activities and investment activities,such as: formulating effective cost and expense management scheme,widening the diversification of financing channels and ways,and paying attention to diversified investment,so as to provide help for Shandong merchant's real estate industry to improve its ability of financial risk prevention,and strive for the whole.China and its real estate listed companies with similar financial problems provide some reference.