Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Model Of Real Estate Enterprises From The Perspective Of Cash Flow

In the latest World Economic Outlook Report,the International Monetary Fund(IMF)estimated that the overall trend of global economic development is weakening expansion.The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also predicted that the potential growth rate of China's GDP will decline slightly next year in the Economic Blue Book.This shows that the current economic growth momentum has weakened.Enterprises will face greater financial risks in this environment.Therefore,financial risk warning work is becoming more and more important.The real estate industry occupies a key position in China's economic development,and then the importance of the health of cash flow to the industry is self-evident.Based on the above background,the thesis constructs a financial risk early warning model for real estate enterprises in China from the perspective of cash flow.Firstly,the listed companies of A-share real estate industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2002 to 2017 were selected as research samples,and an index system based on cash flow perspective was established.Logistic regression was used to construct a financial risk early warning model.After testing,the prediction accuracy of the model for crisis enterprises is as high as 96.8%,the overall correct prediction rate is 87.1%,and the early warning effect is better than the classic Z value model.At the same time,the early warning effect of the cash flow solvency indicator is very significant.Then this thesis chooses the leading enterprise in the real estate industry-Evergrande Group as the empirical test object.Based on the analysis of the current status of financial risk early warning management,using its financial data from 2009 to 2017,it is found that the application of the financial risk early warning model in Evergrande is very satisfactory,which further proves that the model is effective.Finally,in view of the financial risk early warning construction of Evergrande Group,corresponding countermeasures were put forward from the perspective of constructing a complete financial risk early warning system.