| As a bridge between the capital market and the money market,the margin trading of the securities company optimizes the profit model of the securities company,satisfies the diversified needs of investors,improves the trading function of the capital market,and also leverages its leverage.Attributes exacerbate the risks of securities companies and even lead to systemic risks.Establishing a centralized risk monitoring system for margin trading,monitoring the risk control indicators is the consensus of the securities industry.However,this low-standard "fixed action" can not find the hidden problems of the securities company's margin trading,nor can it predict and play a guiding role in the development of the securities company's margin trading.In this regard,this paper evaluates and analyzes the risk index system of AVIC SECURITIES' margin trading,in order to measure the risk level of its margin trading,and try to find out the problems that may exist in the development of margin trading.This paper refers to the principle of object motion analysis to conduct a “force analysis”on the risk of margin trading of securities companies.According to the principle of evaluation index selection,the analytic hierarchy process is used to select and design the risk evaluation index of securities company's margin trading,and establish a financing company financing.Mathematical model of voucher risk assessment.According to the multivariate analysis method such as principal component analysis,the evaluation index is weighted,and the statistical analysis software SPSS24.0 is used to calculate the risk index of the securities company's margin trading.Finally,using the empirical research method to evaluate the risk of the securities lending and securities lending business of AVIC SECURITIES,the longitudinal analysis of the company's risk index over the years,the problems and optimization of the development of the securities lending business of AVIC SECURITIES Company.This paper consists of five parts.The first chapter is the introduction,which first answers why and significance of research from the background of topic selection and research significance,and then comes to the research idea of this paper through sorting and summarizing the research situation at home and abroad,and finally answers how to carry out research.The second chapter is an overview of the theory,introduces the margin trading,and elaborates on the development status,main risk points and risk prevention principles of the margin trading,paving the way for the following.The third chapter constructs the risk evaluation system,analyzes the risk evaluation system model,selects and designs the risk evaluation indicators,and discusses the weight of the evaluation indicators.The fourth chapter empirically analyzes the risk of AVIC SECURITIES' margin trading,calculates the evaluation index weight and risk index,analyzes and verifies the problems reflected by the risk assessment,and proposes risk prevention.The fifth chapter concludes the summary of the full text and looks forward to the future research focus and direction.This paper summarizes the risk factors affecting the risk of margin trading of securities companies into dynamics,resistance and environmental factors,and subdivides the hierarchical structure into the target layer,the criterion layer and the program layer,and selects and designs 29 indicators,among which There are 14 indicators,12 resistance indicators and 3 environmental factors.After enumerating three methods of setting weights such as subjective evaluation method,principal component analysis method and cluster analysis method,the mathematical model of risk evaluation system for margin trading is established.In the empirical analysis of AVIC SECURITIES,in order to objectively reflect the risk of corporate margin trading,this paper uses principal component analysis to set the weights of 29 indicators.Then select the sample data of AVIC SECURITIES margin trading from 2012 to 2018,standardize the relevant data into the evaluation system model,calculate the risk index of the company's margin financing and securities business,and analyze the risk index.Comparing the risk index of AVIC SECURITIES' margin trading from 2012 to 2018,it is found that the proportion of maintenance guarantee has a greater correlation with the risk index of margin financing and securities lending,showing a significant anti-correlation.At the same time,the risk index of AVIC SECURITIES' margin trading is on the rise,which also objectively reflects the problems of the company's margin trading: First,the financing business and the securities lending business are seriously unbalanced;second,the margin financing and securities risk management system is not sound;It is not perfect for credit information.In response to the above problems,this paper proposes a number of risk prevention recommendations:(1)Enhance the strength of securities companies,improve management;(2)Strengthen appropriateness management and customer access control;(3)Implement customer credit limit management;(4)Implement business size limit management;(5)Strictly enforce system regulations and contractual agreements;(6)Prevent operational risks.By analyzing the risk index of AVIC SECURITIES' margin financing and securities lending industry,this paper finds out the key factors affecting the risk of margin financing and securities lending,and finally guides the securities company to prevent and control the risk of margin financing and securities lending,avoiding systemic risks and making it continue to develop in compliance. |
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