Measurement And Analysis Of Unbalanced Development Of Regional Economy

This paper studies the statistical measurement and the decomposition of influencing factors on the unbalanced development of the regions in the manufacturing industry.The quantitative analysis methods for unbalanced development mainly include descriptive statistics,composite indices and model decomposition,which represent the three stages of the development of unbalanced statistical measurement methods respectively.The early researchers mainly used Lorentz curve,data distribution and variance,coefficient of variation and other methods to assess the equilibrium of development,after the researchers based on sample data and mean close degree,welfare utility function and other different angles,to build a comprehensive index of non-equilibrium measurement;With the advancement of Research,The researchers farther analyze the unbalanced through the model quantification,showing the development trend from single to complex.The development of the measurement method improves and complements the research in the field of non-equilibrium,and provides a feasible method for the actual measurement.However,in the literature on unbalanced development at home and abroad,most of them only use a single method for unbalanced measurement,and there is no exploration of the applicable conditions of the factor decomposition model,this paper uses a variety of measurement methods to measure the unbalanced development of the manufacturing industry between regions,and explore the applicable conditions of the decomposition model,The relevant unbalanced theory is verified by empirical results.Firstly,this paper uses descriptive statistics,Gini coefficient,Terre Index,MLD Index and Atkinson index method to measure and compare the development level of manufacturing industry in western,Central and eastern regions,and compares the differences of different methods from the horizontal angle,and probes into the reasons why different methods measure the similarity of unbalanced results.Secondly,by simulating and validating the unbalanced decomposition model by generating random numbers,this paper explores the applicable conditions and environment of the blinder decomposition method and the CHAPRI value decomposition method in Oaxaca,and analyzes the situation and causes of the sharp median decomposition method which is superior to the blinder decomposition method in Oaxaca,and takes the manufacturing industry as an example to carry on the empirical analysis,Based on the ratio of output input,this paper explores the main factors affecting the unbalanced development of manufacturing industry in west and east,Central and eastern China,and according to the low correlation between independent variables of empirical data,combined with the optimal half model,the influence factors of the model are decomposed by using sharp median method.The results of study show that the non-equilibrium degree of manufacturing Development Force Index is the highest in the eastern region,followed by the western region and finally the central region.Between 2008 and 2015,the gap in the level of manufacturing development in the western and eastern regions,the central and eastern regions showed a trend of increasing first and decreasing,which was consistent with the theory of inverted U-type development.When the four methods measure the degree of imbalance between regions,the overall trend is the same,but there are subtle differences between the different methods,on the whole,the MLD index and Atkinson Index measured the results are more similar,because the MLD Index and Atkinson index of the core ideas are similar,The non-equilibrium is measured by comparing the degree of closeness between the sample observation value and the mean value,and the application of the blinder decomposition method and the CHAPRI value decomposition method is as long as the requirement data type is low correlation or irrelevant between the independent variables,while the independent variable and the due variable are highly correlated.If the distribution of some independent variables is more unbalanced,the measurement result of CHAPRI value decomposition is more accurate than that of Oaxaca blinder decomposition method,which is because the blinder decomposition method of Oaxaca is more sensitive to the regression coefficient than the CHAPRI of value decomposition.Western and eastern regions,There is an unbalanced phenomenon in the development of manufacturing industry in the central and eastern regions.The main reasons that affect the change of development gap in different regions can be divided into two aspects,one is the process of urbanization and the other is the behavior of government macro-control intervention.The empirical results show that it is consistent with the principle of cyclic cumulative causality.