Analysis Of Competitiveness Of A-Share Listed Banks

With the development of the economy,the financial system has an increasing impact on the economy.Unconsciously,the financial system has long been integrated into the daily life of the national economy and nationals,and has an increasingly significant impact on the national economy and national life.The financial system is an indispensable part of the national economy.Commercial banks,which are an important part of the financial system,especially in A-share listed commercial banks,are more transparent due to their broader financing channels,more modern management and property rights relationships.The financial data is playing an increasingly important role in the economy.Under the downward pressure of the economy,China's listed banks have become more and more responsible.In addition to acting as a credit intermediary,payment intermediary,and creating credit,they also need to provide a wide range of financial services to solve the problem of investment and financing.China's listed banks are so important in the financial system and bear such a heavy responsibility,but what is the competitiveness of China's listed banks? Where are the advantages and disadvantages of each bank? Even if we know the current competitiveness of various listed banks,what is the future competitiveness of listed banks? Only by knowing this can we compare the current and future competitiveness of each bank,draw advantages and disadvantages and propose improvements.In addition,for investors,the investment is the future.Predictive analysis of the competitiveness of listed banks is very necessary,and can also help banks' decision-making more forward-looking.The ultimate goal of this paper is to predict and analyze the competitiveness of listed banks,which requires the construction of a bank competitiveness prediction model.The prediction model of this paper mainly adopts the ARIMA model.The reason is that the ARIMA model can obtain multiple models through different order differences when compared with the ARMA model.,thus obtaining a model with the best fit.It is not enough to have a predictive model.We also need to measure the competitiveness of banks effectively,timely and comprehensively,and thus need to build a bank competitiveness measurement model.The competitiveness measurement model of this paper mainly uses multivariate statistical analysis methods.The effectiveness and comprehensiveness of the competitiveness measurement model is reflected in the two major aspects of core competitiveness and potential competitiveness,involving financial indicators and non-financial indicators,which can effectively and comprehensively quantify the competitiveness of banks;Timeliness is reflected in the quarterly and annual reports of data from the financial statements of listed banks.The time is measured in quarters and the time interval is small,which enables the bank's competitiveness to be measured in a timely manner.The research ideas in this paper are mainly divided into four steps.The first step is to start with the core competitiveness and potential competitiveness of the bank.From the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2018,the total data of 18 quarters is the whole,and the banks have been in the core for the past 18 quarters.Comparing the two aspects of competitiveness and potential competitiveness,we have a preliminary understanding of the competitiveness of each bank.The second step is to build a bank competitiveness measurement model based on core competitiveness and potential competitiveness,and quantify the competitiveness of each bank,so as to obtain the quantitative value of the comprehensive competitiveness of each bank in the past 18 quarters.Comparative analysis,so as to more objectively recognize the competitiveness of various banks,and analyze and summarize.In the third step,by quantifying the competitiveness of each bank,the quantified values of each bank's quarterly competitiveness are obtained,which provides a data foundation for the subsequent time series analysis.Through the process of model identification,model fitting,model diagnosis and model identification,an appropriate prediction model is established,and the competitiveness of the future is predicted by the value of the previously quantified competitiveness.The fourth step,conclusions and recommendations.The main conclusions we have reached are: 1.The four major state-owned banks are stronger than the joint-stock commercial banks in terms of liquidity and security,and the best-performing joint-stock commercial banks are Industrial Bank;the profitable joint-stock commercial banks are stronger than the four major banks.State-owned banks.2.Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank have the strongest sustainable development capability.China Merchants Bank has the strongest corporate governance capability,and ICBC and CCB's market share is untouched.3.Comprehensive competitiveness ICBC and China Construction Bank are the strongest,and China Merchants Bank has the strongest comprehensive competitiveness among joint-stock commercial banks.4.Competitiveness prediction results,the comprehensive competitiveness of joint-stock commercial banks such as Minsheng Bank,China Everbright Bank and China CITIC Bank will be greatly enhanced,while the four state-owned commercial banks will be greatly weakened.Finally,based on the conclusions reached,the corresponding recommendations are made for the characteristics and conditions of each bank.