Studies On The Production And Disposal Of Chinese Financial Risk By The Leverage Ratio

In recent years,Chinese economy has made rapid progress,but also accumulated a lot of risks.Especially after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 in the United States,China launched a "four trillion" economic stimulus plan to cope with the risks with loose fiscal and monetary policies.Since then,Chinese debt has risen steadily.In view of this,from the perspective of leverage ratio,this article focuses on the relationship between leverage ratio and financial risk,and gives suggestions on how to solve financial risk.This article divides the national economy into four sectors: government,non-financial enterprises,residents and financial institutions.Through theoretical analysis of the relationship between leverage ratio and financial risk,it is concluded that leverage ratio has a positive relationship with financial risk.On the other hand,by choosing non-performing loan rate,risk spread of banking industry,fluctuation of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index,fluctuation of real estate boom index and growth rate of foreign exchange reserve,we construct Chinese financial pressure index,and introduce financial pressure index and leverage ratio of four sectors into VAR vector autoregressive model for empirical analysis.With the help of SPSS software and Eviews software,ADF stationarity test,Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,determination of lag order P,stability test and impulse response analysis are carried out on the data,and the conclusion that leverage ratio is proportional to financial risk is drawn.After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,the U.S.government took a series of measures to make the U.S.economy recover and strengthen again in ten years.This article summarizes the experience and lessons of the outbreak of the financial crisis,and also lists its governance measures,taking the United States as a lesson,to provide inspiration for the related problems facing our country at present.This article gives some suggestions on the deleveraging of the four sectors of the national economy,among which the key of the government is the debts of the local government.Only when the local government has the financial power matching the power,can it really block the further expansion of the debts from the source,and the central government should further improve the transfer payment system to the local government.The biggest pain point of the non-financial enterprise sector is to remove the capacity.Overcapacity is the most important reason for the high debt rate.Besides,it should reduce the bankruptcy and merger resistance of enterprises and broaden the financing channels for small and medium-sized enterprises.The real estate bubble is the key to curb the real estate bubble,because housing mortgage loans account for the vast majority of the debts of the residents.The high debt burden not only occupies the space of consumption,but also helps the real estate.Abducted the direction of government administration;financial institutions are mainly the risk transmitted by the other three sectors.If the protection of financial supervision is well done,it will not only alleviate the risk of this sector,but also contain the financial risk of other three sectors.