Research On Supply Chain Financial Credit Risk Prediction Based On Cox Model

The financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises,narrowing interest margin of banks,maintaining stable supply chain relationship of large enterprises,and seeking new profit growthpoints of logistics enterprises all contribute to the rapid development of supply chain finance in China.In the future,the integration of funds and business capabilities of supply chain finance industry,deepening cooperation among multi-market participants and huge marketspace will be achieved.However,the innovation of supply chain financial business of financial institutions mainly based on banks is essentially the innovation of enterprise credit mode,so it is particularly important to study the early warning of credit risk.Firstly,this paper reviews the research status of supply chain fi nance and the application of Cox model to credit risk.This paper e xpounds three common financing modes of supply chain finance:con firming warehouse,financing warehouse and accounts receivable,defi nes credit risk and analyses the influencing factors of credit risk,wh ich provides a basis for the construction of evaluation index.This paper analyses many methods of credit risk assessment in supply chai n finance,introduces the survival analysis method and Cox proportio nal risk model theory,and expounds the applicability of the model.Secondly,focusing on the relationship between financing enterpri ses and supply chain,using the listed companies of SME board man ufacturing industry as sample data sources,this paper constructs an e arly warning index system of financial credit risk in supply chain f rom six aspects of SME's solvency,profitability,operation ability,grow th ability,cash flow ability and supply chain relationship,and prelimi narily selects 27 financial indicators.After standardization,the selected indicators were further tested for significance and multiple collinea r tests.Finally,10 representative indicators were selected for modelin g and analysis.Subsequently,based on the above treatment,this paper constructs Cox proportional risk model,which is limited by the small numberof samples.The final liquidity ratio,net sales interest rate and total asset cash recovery rate are all protective factors,which are consistent wit h the actual significance.Finally,according to the estimation results of the regression mo del,the prediction accuracy of the model is tested by using the mod eling samples and the prediction samples respectively.The comprehe nsive accuracy is 74.28% and 76.66%,respectively.The overall prediction effect of the model is good.This study will help SMEs to dynamically grasp the level of c redit risk,reduce the risk of credit default,and provide a reference f or the normal operation of supply chain.