| With the guidance of "Made in China 2025" and "three-step" strategy of being a manufacturing country,the global manufacturing has formed a strong research boom of"intelligence",the pattern and mode of production of manufacturing have gradually been transformed to intelligent manufacturing.Intelligent manufacturing enterprises,with the large proportion of intangible assets and high technology content,belong to knowledge-intensive economic entities,so that the dependence on intelligence assets is much higher than that of tangible assets.Their value includes two parts,the independent value of the existing asset and the potential value of the enterprises’ sustained investment in R&D.The traditional static method of value assessment generally underestimates the value of intelligent manufacturing enterprises.Therefore,it makes sense to explore a reasonable and effective potential valuation method,which can reduce the impact of risk and uncertainty in R&D cycle and improve the level of investors’ decision-making.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to further promote the vigorous development of the intelligent manufacturing in China.The paper focuses on manufacturing enterprise evaluation on the basis of real option and fuzzy mathematics.First,the research background and literature at home and abroad are summarized and drawbacks of existing evaluation methods and real option theory are analyzed to put forward the necessity of improving the existing real option evaluation methods for intelligent manufacturing enterprises.Second,it expounds the development actuality of current intelligent manufacturing enterprises and analyzes the formation mechanism of intelligent manufacturing enterprises value.It puts forward the basic hypothesis of model construction and analysis of influence elements with the comparison and selection of model method based on the principles of real option and combined with typical characteristics of intelligent manufacturing enterprise evaluation.Furthermore,through the empirical study on the Sanfeng Intelligent Enterprise evaluation,feasibility of model is tested and the quantitative analysis and comparison between the real option evaluation method and trapezoidal fuzzy option evaluation method are carried out respectively.It is shown that the triangular fuzzy real option model takes into account the investor’s optimism and the result is more reasonable which could reduce the complexity of the calculation process to a certain extent.And the maximum value of the stock price is slightly higher than that of the actual stock price so that the rationality of the evaluation of potential value of the improved model is verified again.Finally,the paper determines these factors and direction of enterprise value based on the sensitivity analysis of key influence factors of potential value of the model,and focuses on business strategy management,R&D project innovation management as well as three other strategies respectively in order to improve the overall value of the intelligent manufacturing enterprises and promote the stable and prosperous development,thus offering eight practical and operational proposals respectively. |
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