House Price,Income Uncertainty And Residents Consumption

Currently,the insufficient consumption of residents has become a hot issue in China.Residents consumption is an important aspect of China's sustainable economic growth and the expansion of effective domestic demand.This paper selected panel data of 30 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China from 2003 to 2016 to study the internal relationship between income uncertainty and household consumption empirically.It can be seen from the quantile regression that income uncertainty has a “crowding effect” on consumption,the size and significance of crowding out effect vary with the quantile,housing price has a significant "wealth effect" which promotes the consumption of household significantly in the sample range,and the higher the quantile,the more the housing price promotes consumption.Considered that income uncertainty affects household consumption in a heterogeneity way,this paper also established a threshold model,and select housing prices as the threshold variable of income uncertainty,this paper tested household consumption under the different housing price situation on income uncertainty.Regression result shows that in low housing price and high housing price range,income uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on household consumption,in the medium housing price range,income uncertainty has a significant stimulative effect on household consumption.The regional heterogeneity test in this paper shows that the housing price in the eastern and western regions of China can significantly promote the consumption of residents,and the income uncertainty in the eastern region has a negative impact on the consumption of residents,while the income uncertainty in the central and western regions has no significant impact on the consumption of residents.Income uncertainty in urban and rural areas has no significant impact on residents' consumption,while the corresponding housing price can significantly promote the increase of residents' consumption.Moran index test of this paper show that the regional house prices and income uncertainty exists significant spillover,housing price and income uncertainty do have a certain influence on consumer spending in other areas,further empirical research shows that the regional house prices impact on consumer spending in other areas are not obvious,and a region of income uncertainty is significantly inhibited the residents' consumption in other areas.Based on the conclusion,this paper puts forward a series of policy suggestions.(1)on the basis of ensuring the stable growth of residents' income,reducing the fluctuation of expected income growth so that residents can effectively anticipate theactual income level of the current period through the actual income of the past period,and then stabilize residents' confidence in future income;(2)to avoid sharp fluctuations in housing prices,build a sound housing supply and demand market,enhance the liquidity of housing assets,and release the hidden "wealth" fixed in housing assets fully;(3)on the premise that income uncertainty is inevitable,housing prices should be maintained in various regions to avoid housing prices falling into the range of restraining residents' consumption,housing fund system should be regarded as a housing security system for middle and low income families,and reverse the mismatch of housing funds;(4)deepen the reform of the supply side and the demand side while strengthening the dominant position of the market.(5)improve the current income distribution policy to achieve the coordination of income distribution between residents and the government and among residents.