The Impact Of New Urbanization On Housing Price

Urbanization is an inevitable trend in the process of China's economic development.The process of urbanization plays an extremely important role in promoting the development of China's agricultural modernization,narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas,and breaking the urban-rural dual structure.Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,as the new requirements and new paths of the new era,the new urbanization have gradually entered the people's field of vision.Unlike traditional urbanization,which pursues the expansion of scale and speed of development one-sidedly,the new urbanization whose core concept is "people-oriented" is an connotative development mode limited by the comprehensive bearing capacity of resources,and an urbanization promotion mode that emphasizes the simultaneous development of speed and quality.In order to implement the planning rules for the new urbanization issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council in 2014,the National Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have divided the three provinces and 246 cities(towns)into three comprehensive batches of national new urbanization pilot projects.What impact will the new urbanization pilots have on the real estate market? What are the paths of new urbanization construction that affect housing prices?Based on the above problems,this paper uses the first batch and the second batch of new urbanization pilot policies to construct quasi-experimental design,using panel data of 227 prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2016 for a total of 5 years to make an in-depth exploration.Firstly,in this paper,the simple difference-in-difference model is adopted,and the new urbanization pilot policy is taken as the key explanatory variable.The regression results show that there is a significant positive impact on the housing prices before and after the control variables such as population density,average wage and land price.Secondly,after identifying the systematic differences between the pilot cities and the non-pilot cities using whether or not to implement the pilot as an explanatory variable,the logistic regression method is used to calculate the propensity scores of each sample and two matching methods which is the nearest neighbors combined with the radius matching and the kernel matching construct a new sample of data balance.The estimated results of kernel matching indicate that the pilot still has a significant positive impact on the price of commercial housing per square meter,which indicates that the research conclusions in this paper have good robustness.Finally,this paper tests the intermediary mechanism of the new urbanization affecting housing prices which shows that the new urbanization pilot policy can promote housing price increase by improving the city's infrastructure and public service level which mainly through the promotion of compulsory education represented by the number of full-time primary school teachers and the transportation level represented by per capita road area causing house prices to rise.Since most of the cities in the sample are in the transition stage from the traditional industry to the modern industry,the development of the secondary industry is still the main driving force for economic growth in these cities.The empirical results show that the new urbanization pilot policy in a short period of time made the secondary industry in the pilot cities GDP proportion increased,the tertiary industry GDP proportion decreased,thus promoting the housing price rise.Based on the empirical results,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations(1)In order to maintain the stable fluctuation of China's housing prices,new urbanization construction should pay attention to the equalization of inter-regional infrastructure and public services.(2)The government should rationally treat the role of industrial structure upgrading in reasonably promoting housing price when formulating housing price control policies(3)In order to improve the employment channels of the agricultural transfer population,the new urbanization construction should establish a sound employment transfer mechanism for agricultural transfer population and increase investment in education in rural areas.