Study On Emergency Supplies Allocation In The Early Post-earthquake Period

With the rapid development of our society,the national happiness index has been continuously improved.However,there are also many emergencies in the process of harmonious development.In recent years,some large-scale earthquakes,such as the Wenchuan earthquake and the Yushu earthquake have caused enormous disaster,resulting in large property and mass mortality loss.Decision makers should give rapid respond after the earthquake happens.A large number of emergency supplies are urgently needed in the initial stage of rescue.Scientific and effective transportation scheduling for emergency supplies is needed in order to reduce the earthquake damage.Therefore,this thesis focuses on the initial rescue stage after the earthquake as the background to study and analyze the allocation problem of emergency supplies,and provides decision-making support for the government and other relevant post-earthquake emergency logistics administer departments.Firstly,the system of the post-earthquake emergency logistics is introduced.Post-earthquake emergency logistics neglects the economic utility,and focuses on the minimization of time waste and disaster loss instead.The characteristics of earthquake disasters and the demand and supply characteristics of emergency supplies after the earthquake are discussed in this thesis.The classification criteria and methods for solving the model are summarized.The BP neural network is used to construct on earthquake casualty prediction model,and an improved post-earthquake emergency supplies estimation method is proposed.The composition and characteristics of the post-earthquake emergency logistics network are analyzed.Secondly,considering previous studies were single target and vehicle scheduling problem,a three-level transportation network for emergency supplies is constructed in this thesis,which is suitable for rapid response to post-earthquake emergency rescue.A bi-level mathematical programming model is designed based on the shortest total distribution time of emergency supplies between the upper nodes and the maximum total demand satisfaction rate of the lower disaster demand points,and multiple transportation modes are considered in the model.The basic form of bi-level programming and the solving methods of different problems are proposed.A hierarchical solution and a cyclic solution are designed based on the genetic algorithm.Finally,the initial emergency supplies allocation problem is simulated and solved,taking the Wenchuan earthquake as an example.The demand for supplies is indirectly estimated by the number of people affected by the feedback of demand points,which are clustered by K-means algorithm after the affected areas are divided.Then the supplies quantity,storage capacity and transportation modes of each node are listed.The model is solved by the designed algorithm.The scheduling schemes of all kinds of transportation vehicles,all levels of nodes,disaster points and temporary rescue points are obtained,and the performance and practical feasibility of the two algorithms are compared.