A Brief Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of China's Trade With America

Since the 21st century,economic globalization has deepened and China has joined the WTO family.The hot money in the United States continues to flood into China,and direct investment in China continues to grow.The Sino-US economy itself has certain complementarities,which has made the Sino-US trade relations develop by leaps and bounds.However,under the influence of many factors,the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries have not always been smooth sailing.The United States often forces the renminbi to appreciate on the grounds of huge trade deficit.In fact,the factors affecting Sino-US trade include economic factors such as GDP and exchange rate,as well as non-economic factors such as politics,military,culture,and society.Most of the existing research focuses on the impact of exchange rate factors on Sino-US trade volume,while the economic situation of the two countries has little impact on imports and exports.As for political and other non-economic factors,there are few references.This paper creatively uses the relationship between the two countries to represent political factors,then uses GDP and exchange rate to represent economic factors,and uses Chinese exports to the United States as the dependent variable to construct a vector autoregressive model(abbreviated as VAR model),trying to analyze the impact.An important factor in US trade.Using the VAR model,the results of the integrated impulse response function and the variance decomposition,the exchange rate is not the determining factor affecting China's import and export volume to the US,and the impact of China's GDP is more significant.This conclusion provides some reflections on the formulation of the macro-strategies of the two countries,and it also has practical significance for the current Sino-US trade war.