Analysis Of The Impact Of Spot Price On Import And Export Trade Volume

In recent years,the rapid development of the domestic economy has also promoted the rapid development of the copper market.Copper is a non-ferrous metal.The raw materials of bulk industries are non-renewable resources and an important basic material for economic development.All industries have huge demand for copper.However,China is a country with a shortage of copper resources.Its copper resource reserves and mining are far from enough to meet domestic demand.The scarcity of copper resources seriously restricts the development of China's economy.The import and export trade of copper is a commodity trade.The trade of bulk commodities is characterized by large trade volume and large amount of funds,and is sensitive to policy responses.These indicate that copper price fluctuations are not only affected by supply and demand and production costs,futures prices.Frequent fluctuations have a negative impact on domestic economic development,especially for import and export traders.Due to the huge volume of trade,any small price fluctuation will bring huge risks to the operation of traders.Because import and export traders are not speculators,they are not earning the difference profits caused by price fluctuations,but expecting stable prices,stable prices can cooperate with customers for a long time,but every price fluctuation will bring to importers and exporters.No small impact.In the face of the impact of price fluctuations on themselves,some large enterprises will choose long-term contracts to fix prices.However,it is difficult for small enterprises to have large funds to enter into long-term contracts,and long-term contracts have no circumvention of default risks,so they evade.Risks caused by price fluctuations,in addition to some basic risk aversion measures such as hedging,it is best to prevent some price movements in advance and find some factors related to the volume of import and export trade.The futures market has been developed and developed for physical services on a spot basis.It has been a development process for more than 100 years.As an important financial derivative,its powerful risk aversion function and price discovery function are widely used.The first means of risk aversion is an important and indispensable part of the world capital market.Although the futures market has played an important role in supply-side reform and resource optimization in recent years,it is still far from the developed countries.The Shanghai Futures Exchange is the main trading venue for copper futures,and it is one of the “three major pricing centers” of the world copper futures.The price of the futures market contains a wealth of information.Therefore,through the study of the spot price,the price of copper is grasped.Trends,as well as the correlation with trade volume,can adjust trade strategies to lock in trade costs to reduce losses.This paper combs the relevant research on the spot market,the related research on metal import and export trade,and the relevant research on the related research methods of relationship measurement and literature review.It introduces the origin and development of the spot market and the copper in China.The spot market is briefly introduced to analyze the general trade status of China's metal copper and the analysis of the trade status of the five countries with the highest import and export volume in China.Based on the previous studies,the theory needed for this paper is summarized.Based on the stability test,autocorrelation and ARCH LM test of copper spot price time series and trade amount series,after the test data is valid,the general linear regression influence relationship and the nonlinear extreme tail correlation analysis are two aspects.The relationship between the spot price of metallic copper and the volume of import and export trade was analyzed.The general linear regression impact analysis starts from the general linear and cointegration test,and the spot price of metallic copper from the four aspects of GARCH process and cross-impact relationship,Granger causality test and two-way influence relationship,impulse response function and dynamic influence relationship.The impact relationship between trade volumes is analyzed in depth.The nonlinear tail correlation analysis mainly uses the tail correlation measure of the Copula function to analyze the corresponding change in the trade volume of the metal copper period spot price after the big rise exceeds the big drop.The empirical results show that the spot price of metal copper has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the volume of import and export trade.The spot price has Granger causality and cross-impact relationship on the import and export volume.The import value under the impulse response function is compared with the export value.The impact on the spot price shock is relatively large.The spot price has little impact on the import and export volume.The futures price has a negative impact on the current import and export volume,and the impact is not significant.When the spot price rises,the probability of the import and export increase is greater than the probability that the import and export volume will fall when the spot price falls,and the probability of an increase in the volume of imports and exports caused by the rise in futures prices is greater.At the end of the art icle,the corresponding opinions and suggestions are given based on the empirical results.