Research On The Impact Of Financial Cycle On China's Economic Structural Imbalance

In recent years,China's economic development has entered a "new normal",and the imbalance of economic structure is one of the important features of the "new normal".China's economy has long been in a state of imbalance between the internal structure of the imbalance of investment and consumption structure and the imbalance of the external structure of the "double surplus" of the balance of payments,that is,the state of imbalance between the internal and external structures.There is an urgent need to clarify the causes and mechanisms of the imbalance of economic structure,and most of the existing research does not consider the impact of financial factors.With the continuous development of the financial market,the role of financial factors in the macro economy cannot be ignored.The global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has had a profound impact on the global economy,which has led foreign scholars to study the cyclical fluctuations of finance and its impact on the real economy fluctuations,and proposed the financial cycle theory.In the actual economic operation process,various financial factors will affect the consumption,investment,savings,import and export,and capital flows,so that the financial cycle fluctuations of the overall financial situation will produce an effect on the economic structure of a country through multiple channels.Based on the existing economic theory,this paper systematically analyzes the mechanism of the impact of the financial cycle on the internal and external structural imbalances.Further,in order to study the specific impact of the financial cycle on China's economic structural imbalance,the text constructs the indicator of China's financial cycle and the indicators of internal and external imbalances in China's economy,and applies the SV-TVP-VAR model that allows parameters to change with time to study the dynamic impact of the financial cycle on the imbalance of China's economic structure.The empirical research results are as follows:First,in terms of the direction of impact,under the influence of financial cycle shocks,China's internal economic imbalance index and medium-term and long-term capital flows will show fluctuations in the same direction as the financial cycle,while current account and short-term capital flows will present fluctuations in the opposite direction of the financial cycle.Second,in terms of the degree of impact,the financial cycle has played a role of "financial accelerator" for the structural imbalance index,which is amplifying the internal structural imbalance index and the medium-term and long-term fluctuations of the current account,while exacerbating the short-term flow of capital.Third,in terms of the contribution of impact,the financial cycle shock is an important source of China's economic structural imbalance,and the financial cycle shock can explain the fluctuation of internal and external structural imbalance index by nearly 30%and 20%respectively.Finally,the paper explains these conclusions and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.