| The deepening of the aging population has brought about an inevitable increase in the number of elderly disabled people,which has led to an increase in the need for care for the disabled.The care of family members has been unable to meet the care needs of the disabled elderly,and the finance of individuals or families as a single subject.Supply,can not afford the care and financial expenses for the needs of the disabled elderly,the demand should seek more yuan,a more stable financial supply.Therefore,government financial input has become an inevitable trend,and the ability to support financial subsidies is the focus of current research.By analyzing the existing researches,many scholars in China are based on the calculation of the financial needs of long-term care insurance for disabled elderly people,and analyze the feasibility of financial support according to a certain proportion of the national financial burden,but this method is too In general,there is no specific aspect of the financial burden.Therefore,this paper divides urban and rural areas when calculating the financial burden to explore the ability of the government to undertake specific financial subsidies.Therefore,this article starts from the financial needs and financial supply of long-term care insurance for disabled elderly people,focusing on the affordability of the state finance.First of all,in the calculation of the long-term care financial needs of the disabled elderly,using the data of CHARLS 2015,the disability rate of the elderly aged 60 and over in China is calculated by urban and rural areas.Based on the Chinese part of the World Population Outlook 2017,the calculation of China's 2020-The size of the disabled seniors in each class in 2050,and then calculate the total financial needs in different care modes.It was found that the total urban and rural financial demand increased from 457.7 billion yuan to 46.627 billion yuan in2020-2050.In 2050,the total urban and rural financial demand is 2.85 times that of2020.In the future,long-term care financial needs are characterized by heavy financial burden and rapid growth.Secondly,by calculating the wage level and population of urban and rural employed persons in the future,the contribution rate for the financial needs of the severely disabled elderly and the disabled disabled will be calculated according to the method of collecting and collecting.The amount of subsidy is required to calculate the financial burden of half of the amount paid by rural employees and the portion where the contribution rate exceeds 2%.It is found that,firstly,if the fiscal model is used to subsidize the long-term care of financialneeds of all disabled and heavily disabled elderly people,the government financial burden of 2020-2050 is 2.18%-5.14% and 0.56%-1.34% respectively;Second,when the target of payment is severely disabled,the contribution rate in 2020-2050 is less than 2%.Within the acceptable range of the public,the proportion of financial subsidies is 0.04%-0.07%,and the state finance can afford it;Third,when the target of payment is for all disabled elderly people,the proportion of state financial subsidies for 2020-2050 under the three schemes is 0.16%-0.25%,0.51%-2.24%,and0.16%-2.39%.Based on the above findings,and comparing the financial support policies of Germany and Japan,the following policy recommendations are proposed for the future development of China's long-term care insurance system: First,clarify government responsibilities,including clarifying the protection of people and subsidies in the system design,and establishing The fiscal reserve is used to cope with financial risks;secondly,Establish a tripartite fundraising mechanism shared by employers,employees and the government. |
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