| Over the years,the Chinese government has introduced a large number of regulatory policies to stabilize the real estate market.In the long run,policy regulation has not effectively balanced market volatility,nor has it solved the fundamental problems of the real estate market.To solve more essential problems,supply-side reforms are needed.The origin of real estate supply is the supply of land for commercial housing.Therefore,the rationale for rationalizing the internal relationship of the real estate market lies in the supply-side reform of commercial and residential construction land.By describing the external characteristics of the real estate market in Beihai City,this paper studies the internal driving mode of real estate supply and demand changes over the years,finds out the structural imbalance of urban construction land market and the high real estate inventory,and fully coordinates the government's fiscal and taxation,land supply,house price fluctuations,The relationship between population growth and capital flow has established a path to dynamically adjust the supply and demand of urban construction land oriented to changes in market supply and demand.It has carried out research on effectively solving the real estate industry regulation and control and ensuring the steady and healthy growth of the local economy.The main findings are as follows:(1)Based on the research on the operation mechanism of the real estate market,the paper puts forward the research ideas,methods and frameworks for predicting the operation results of the real estate market in the next few years.Compared with the previous operation mechanism of the real estate market,it is unilateral to formulate the supply and demand countermeasures in the form of “planned economy”.The way of supply,research has received theoretical support and data support(2)From the analysis of the general situation of Beihai's social and economic development and population changes,Beihai's real estate investment intensity is moderate,real estate finance and real estate market are relatively balanced in the long-term and short-term,which is conducive to the healthy development of the later market and the continuous inflow of population.Also supports local real estate development needs.(3)The development space of Yinhai District is slightly stronger than that of Haicheng District,while there are many inefficient use of old factories and shantytowns in Haicheng District,and the contradiction between land use is more prominent.In the last period of the low tide of real estate in Beihai City,there were more “unfinished buildings” and applicable real estate stocks.If we can continue to revitalize the land and stock of such projects,it will form a certain supplement to the incremental market..(4)From the overall forecast results,the supply of commercial and residential construction land in 2019-2022 is larger than the demand,but the balance of supply and demand in each year is different.The state of oversupply in 2020 is more obvious.The actual supply situation of construction land exceeds the planned supply phenomenon,which reflects that the market has a large demand for commodity housing,and the commodity housing deconstruction cycle is also short.Simply relying on the supply plan can not meet the market demand well,and the stock land supply is a supplementary channel for the source of commercial and residential construction land.There is a problem of large fluctuations in the amount of land redevelopment in each year.It is necessary to carry out detailed argumentation to rationally adjust the annual supply. |
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