Study On Methods Of Predicting Land Demand For Construction Use In Land Use Planning

Predicting construction land use demand is an important part in land use planning. The previous turn of land use planning has played the prodigious role in the land utilization and management, but there are still many problems in the implementary process, one is the predicting construction land use demand which does not conform to the reality of socioeconomic development. Now, the new turn revision of land use planning is being carried on, it is very important for the new turn revision of land use planning to strengthen the probe and research on the construction land use demand predicting, and improve the predict level with proper method.This paper form the status of construction land use in our country, summarized the domestic and foreign research on the predicting, and introduced several methods which are in common used, make an analysis of the different theory and characteristics of different predicting methods, and ascertain their using conditions and disadvantages. There are so many influential factors of construction land use demand, including society, economy, environment, and policies and so on. Make a principle to choose the influential factors of construction land use demand, and an analysis of the influential factors, and then filter the primary factors with impersonal analytical method.This paper takes the revision pilot practice of the new turn of land use planning of Karamay city, based on the methods of construction land use demand predicting. Using the selected thirteen years'socioeconomic statistical data and construction land use data from 1996 to 2008 linked to the reality of Karamay city. Choosing GDP, gross industrial output, fixed asset investment, per capita arable land and total retail sales of consumer goods as the primary influential factors of construction land use demand, through the analysis of the character of construction land use and the influential factors, and has constructed the multiple linear regression model, GM(1,1) model and BP neural network model of construction land use demand, then studied and analyzed the results of prediction under these models and tested the accuracy. Finally, predict construction land use demand in the near future 2010 and at a specified future date 2020 according to the adaptability of each model, and that might be a reference and support for the new turn revision of land use planning of Karamay.