Research On Social Logistics Cost Forecast In Shaanxi Province Under The Background Of “Belt And Road”

China's economy is developing at a rapid pace,and new achievements have been made in the field of science and technology.The industry is also steadily upgrading.The"new normal"thought is a new development idea put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping from the characteristics of China's current economic development.As a fast-growing industry in recent years,the logistics industry is also entering the"new normal".Due to China's national conditions,the cost of social logistics has remained high,and the healthy development of the logistics industry has been hindered.It is a key point to strength,en the vitality of the logistics industry and improve the overall operational efficiency of the logistics industry by conducting social logistics costs that can basically reflect its future development trends and strictly control the necessary and unnecessary expenditures generated in logistics activities.This paper takes the relevant theoretical background of social logistics cost as the starting point,and on this basis,it adds the relevant research status of social logistics cost prediction at home and abroad,and forms the research basis of the article.First of all,an effective analysis of the social logistics costs and the specific situation of the logistics industry in Shaanxi Province under the background of"Belt and Road".Secondly,through the analysis of the status and the study of relevant literature,the factors affecting the social logistics cost of Shaanxi Province are proposed.According to certain index selection principles,select indicators that can objectively reflect the nature of each impact factor,and establish a social logistics cost forecasting index system in Shaanxi Province under the background of "Belt and Road",and put the policy of"Belt and Road"to Shaanxi society.The impact of logistics costs is objectively demonstrated.Then use the gray correlation model to analyze the correlation between various indicators and the social logistics cost of Shaanxi Province.Then,using the SPSS software and MATLAB software,the principal component linear regression model and the gray neural network model are constructed.The actual data from 2009 to 2017 were used to test the validity of the two models.According to the predicted numerical results,the gray neural network model has higher precision than the principal component linear regression model.Finally,the gray neural network is used to predict the specific values and trends of social logistics costs in Shaanxi Province in the next five years.This paper accurately predicts the future development trend of social logistics costs in Shaanxi Province under the background of"Belt and Road"and provides a more comprehensive understanding of social logistics costs.This will lay the foundation for statistical analysis and forecasting of this indicator,and also collect accurate and complete logistics.Cost related data.Through this forecast,the dynamics of social logistics costs in Shaanxi Province have become clearer,providing an effective way for logistics cost control,which not only helps government departments to formulate relevant logistics development plans and policies,but also strengthens macroeconomic regulation and control to increase the indicator basis.