The Research On Demand Garden Fruit Cold Chain Logistics In Hunan Province

In recent years,China' s demand for fresh garden fiuit has been rising.China' s consumption of garden fruit has increased from 28.9 kg/person in 2000 to 43.6 kg/person in 2016.However,the development of the garden fruit industry is inseparable from the development of the cold chain logistics industry.The current status of the cold chain logistics of the garden fruit can no longer adapt to the development of the supply and demand of garden fruit,and the high-quality and safe circulation of fresh garden fruit is also proposed for the higher requirements of cold chain logistics.Therefore,the study of the demand for cold chain logistics of garden fruit has an important significance in promoting the development of cold chain logistics of forest fruit and ensuring the efficient and safe supply of forest fruit.Based on the research status of cold chain logistics and logistics demand forecasting at home and abroad and related theoretical knowledge,this paper first analyzes the development status of cold chain logistics of garden fuit in Hunan Province,including the development status of garden fruit industry and forest fruit logistics.The analysis of current status of garden fruit industry includes analysis of garden fruit production,planting area and distribution of planting area,and analysis of demand status.The current status of garden fruit logistics includes status quo of transportation and current status of cold chain logistics.Second,combined with the status quo,the paper proposes the influencing factors of the cold chain logistics demand in Hunan Province,and then constructs the quantitative indicators of the 12 cold chain logistics needs of garden fruit,and uses the grey correlation model to calculate the 12 indicators and the cold chain of fruit trees.The degree of correlation of logistics requirements.Then,taking the cold-chain logistics demand of Hunan province as an example,a principal component linear regression model and a grey neural model were constructed.The validity of the two models was tested using data from 2006 to 2016,and the numerical results obtained from the prediction were used.The comparative analysis proves that the grey neural network model has higher accuracy than the principal component linear regression model.Then the gray neural network is used to forecast the total cold coal logistics demand in our province in the next five years.At last,we will provide suggestions on the future development of garden fruit cold chain logistics in Hunan Province from the aspects of cold chain logistics construction,transportation infrastructure construction,government policies,enterprises and industries.This paper provides a theoretical basis for the planning of the gadren fruit cold chain logistics system in Hunan Province in the future through the forecast of Hunan Province's gadren fruit cold chain logistics demand,and meanwhile it also can povide some reference for the development of gadren fruit cold chain logistics in other areas in china.