Research On Dynamic Adjustment Model Of Emergency Decision Based On Department Coordination

In recent years,all kinds of emergencies have occurred frequently,causing serious losses to the lives of the people and social development in all countries.Due to the characteristics of sudden,dynamic,serious destruction and high degree of information loss,emergency management has increasingly become the focus of widespread social attention.The key point of emergency management is emergency decision,and the quality of emergency decision is directly related to the success of emergency management.And the dynamic adjustment process is the most important step in emergency decision making.According to the situation that may occur on the spot and the effect of the implementation of the emergency plan,it is the key to command,adjust and rescue the whole emergency by adjusting the current implementation plan,controlling the development of the situation,preventing the further deterioration of the situation and reducing the loss caused by the emergency.At the same time,there are many departments involved in the real emergency rescue process.Effective department coordination and communication coordination is the guarantee for the smooth implementation and completion of emergency decision-making.Therefore,dynamic adjustment of emergency decision-making under departmental coordination is extremely important.In order to adjust the emergency decision scientifically and rationally,coordinate the emergency decision-making departments effectively,minimize the loss caused by emergency events and control the development of events,the model of dynamic adjustment judgment and decision making are constructed by analyzing the situation evolution of emergencies in this thesis.Firstly,the situations of the emergency are defined,the law and path of the situation evolution are analyzed,and the situation probability is assigned.Based on bayesian network,the situations of the emergency are deduced.Then,in view of economic loss and the casualties of situations,based on psychological threshold value interval and department of collaborative reference point,the satisfaction of the situations and Attribute satisfaction are obtained.Based on the overall satisfaction of emergency calculated,the emergency decision-making dynamic adjustment of judgment are proposed.Finally,to obtain the coordinate reference point of the department,the psychological reference points of each department are used as the identification framework to synthesize the basic probability distribution of psychological reference points in each department.Based on the value of different situations calculated and normalized,the comprehensive value of the scenarios are obtained.The weight of the situations are assigned by the decision-making importance of the situations,and the expected prospect value of each scheme is calculated.The Emergency plan is prioritized by the expected prospect value.At the same time,the validity and applicability of the method are verified by cases.