A Study And Application Of Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision-making Methods Based On Prospect Theory

Multi-criteria.decision-making(MCDM)has been widely applied in economy and society.Due to environmental uncertainty,and psychological tendency of decision-makers,traditional MCDM methods using Expected Utility Theory(EUT)fail to be compatible with those complex practical problems.To solve such issues above,Fuzzy MCDM(FMCDM),using fuzzy theory and MCDM methods,is introduced to deal with uncertainty;Prospect Theory(PT),a representative behavioral decision theory,is proposed to consider psychological tendency.These two theories constitute a feasible solution especially for fuzzy MCDM problems,which is in line with the scientific decision-making methodology.This paper orderly illustrates characteristics of FMCDM problems,differences and relations between EUT and PT,and preprocessing policies of fuzzy numbers,including defuzzification and normalization.Based on above,this paper separately proposes FMCDM methods to three specific FMCDM issues:hybrid MCDM problem with multiple options and criteria,intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy MCDM problem,and risky FMCDM problem.Case studies are carried out in each issue,showing practical significance.Main contributions of this paper are:(1)To such hybrid MCDM problem with multiple options and criteria:by discussing advantages and disadvantages of several types of reference points,a non-parametric test method is introduced to determine the reference point.Besides reference points design,some approaches dealing with fuzzy numbers and value functions are also presented.(2)To intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy MCDM problems:an improved version of ITFN score function is proposed to overcome the weakness of previous version.Based on this new score function,decision model dealing with ITFN data is established in considering of behavioral factors and core thought of VIKOR method.(3)To risky FMCDM problems:regional counter-terrorism intelligence system evaluation is introduced;corresponding evaluation index system is established then.During evaluation process,it is hard to subjectively determine weights of criteria in risky FMCDM problems,and therefore TOPSIS method is introduced,which is independent on criteria weights.