| The real estate industry in china has come into a new stage of continuous development, since 1998, when the Chinese housing system is coming into progress, especially along with the end of the welfare allocating houses, and the beginning of the housing commercialization. In the mean time, the price of the real estate has rapidly risen up. There are so many arguments about the real-estate bubble in our country, but there are no obvious conclusions.Along with the development of foreign investment in China's real estate market (both in development field and consumption market), the impact of foreign capital is arising as a hot topic. This paper objectively analyzed the effect of foreign capital and made some policies, based on the theory of economic bubble, speculation and balance of demand and supply of real-estate.After reviewed classic economic theories and examples related to real estate bubble internal and external, the dissertation summarizes the producing mechanism of real-estate bubble, and confirms the remarkable role of international floating fund in the process of real estate bubble breaking out. By building the simultaneous equations of real estate supply and demand, this article analyzes how the floating funds effect on the supply and demand and then pull the house price rising. Using the Panel Data model, this paper studies the regional characteristic of the effect on different area and house type, especially the contribution to the real estate bubble in the local. With the conclusion of there are some real estate bubble in some areas, the paper reveals the risk and harm of real estate and proposes some predicting and countermeasure based on China reality.Different from the early study on the international floating funds' effect on China real estate, the article's innovation is to quantify the effect by using the statistical model and find out the funds floating to which area and which type of house, which helps to make policies. |
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