The Analysis And Prediction Of Corporate Bond Financing During Transformation And Upgrading Of Traditional Industries

China has experienced 30 years’ rapid economic growth since its reform and opening up to outside world.But the growth gradually declined in the recent years and GDP growth declined to 6.9 in 2015,which means the economic turns into a “New normal”.In order to find a new driving engine for the economic growth,the government proposed the strategy of vigorously promoting the development of emerging strategic industries and accelerating actively the traditional industries’ transformation and upgrading.The bond market,as a significant corporate financing way,will have great impacts on the future development of the industry transition.Therefore,the research on the effects made by bond market on the transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries has an extraordinary significance.The dissertation classifies the usage of corporate bond as expanding traditional industries’ main business、promoting the transformation from traditional industries to emerging industries、promoting the upgrading of the traditional industries and expanding the emerging industries on the base of nearly 15000 corporate bond financing records during 2000 and 2014,then addresses the contribution of bond market made to promoting the transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries on the base of these four types of usages and finally gives prediction of the corporate bond financing amount from 2016 to 2020.The conclusion goes to that the existing corporate bond market has positive effects in promoting the rapid transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries,but there still exists some problems: nearly 80% of the bond financing amount was used to expand traditional industries’ main business;bond financing amount used to transformation and upgrading declined at 2009 because of the crowing-out effect from the 4 trillion investment plan,but it has increased since 2012;bond financing amount used to expand the emerging industries increased every year.In the last 16 years,corporate bond financed 27.6 trillion totally,among which 2.6 trillion was used to promote the transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries.The prediction results shows that in 2020 the corporate bond financing amount will reach 13.2 trillion,including 2.6 trillion used to promote the transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries,which is 5 times of the amount in 2014.