Research On The Impact Of Credit Policy On Real Estate Price

After more than 20 years of rapid development,the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of China's economy and has made important contributions to China's economic development.However,in the development of the real estate industry,there are still problems such as excessive prices and excessive growth;especially in recent years,the growth rate of house prices far exceeds the growth rate of residents' income.This has affected the development of China's real economy to a certain extent and has restricted the improvement of people's living standards.In order to stabilize housing prices,the government has adopted a variety of measures,issued a series of policies,and achieved certain results,but the role of the policy,long-term effectiveness and other aspects still need further study.As a means of government regulation of real estate prices,credit policy has played an important role in maintaining the stability of real estate prices.This paper first analyzes the various credit policies adopted by the government in the past 20 years of development in the real estate industry(especially the credit scale and credit interest rate policies),and plays a role in the development and regulation of the real estate market.Then through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the model of real estate price and credit scale and credit interest rate is established,and the impact of credit scale and credit interest rate on real estate price is analyzed.Then add the national economic development level as a regulatory variable,and analyze its adjustment effect on the credit scale and credit interest rate affecting real estate prices.Finally,the credit scale and credit interest rate will affect the real estate price.The economic development level has a regulatory effect on the credit interest rate affecting the real estate price,and proposes the corresponding credit policy according to the characteristics of its influence.From the content of the chapter,the first three chapters of this article are mainly theoretical research.The first chapter introduces the research background and research significance,research ideas and main contents,research methods,and innovations and deficiencies.The second chapter,literature review,based on the definition of real estate prices,credit policies and other related concepts,summarizes the regulation of real estate prices and the impact of credit policies on real estate prices,focusing on the impact of credit scale and credit interest rates on real estate prices..The third chapter is the development of China's real estate market price changes and credit policies.It focuses on the development of China's real estate market,the evolution of real estate policy,the changes in China's real estate prices,and the problems in the process of real estate price regulation in China.The fourth chapter is the quantitative analysis part of this paper.This chapter first constructs an autoregressive model of real estate prices,credit scales and credit interest rates.Using the quarterly data of credit scale,credit interest rate and real estate price in China's real estate market since 2000,the impact of the former two on the latter is analyzed.And the autoregressive model of real estate prices is analyzed.Then,the economic development level is added as a moderator to study the adjustment effect of credit scale and credit interest rate on real estate prices.Chapter V conclusions and recommendations.The research in this paper shows that:(1)Credit policy,including credit scale and credit interest rate,are important factors affecting real estate prices.The size of credit is a positive impact and credit rates are negative.(2)There is a certain lag period;(3)The house price will also be affected by the previous house price,which is a positive impact;(4)The national economic development level will play a negative role in the impact of the credit interest rate on the house price..According to the research conclusions,the rationalization proposal for the formulation of credit policy was put forward.Innovations:(1)In terms of research methods,after studying the impact of credit policies on real estate prices,the autoregressive model of housing prices was further analyzed,and the adjustment effect of the national economic development level was analyzed.(2)After analyzing the cyclical changes in credit policies and the cyclical changes in housing prices,the changes in the supply and demand of the real estate market(several indicators)were further introduced.It was foundthat the indicators at both ends of the real estate market also had corresponding changes.(3)When analyzing the adjustment effect of the national economic development level,it not only considers the adjustment effect when the credit scale and credit interest rate simultaneously regulate real estate prices,but further analyzes the adjustment effect when the credit scale and credit interest rate respectively regulate real estate prices.The results of the analysis are more complete and scientific.The shortcomings of this paper are mainly reflected in the fact that there is a certain error in using the benchmark interest rate instead of the actual interest rate.Due to the diversity of credit instruments,there is a certain error in replacing the scale of real estate credit with the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions.Factors that affect real estate prices are not of concern.