Research On The Influence Of China Bank Credit On Real Estate Price

The industry of real estate in China is rising abruptly since the market-oriented reform has begun in 1998,and it has been an important component of national economy supporting economic growth and providing development driven-forces.On one hand,the industry of real estate propelled the Chinese macroeconomic growth,promoted the relative industries development and improved the employment opportunity;on the other hand,the price of real estate constantly goes up which has caused huge pressure on Chinese citizen as well as a series of social contradictions.To study the mechanism of rapidly price growth of real estate has critical significance for the future industry of real estate normal development.The industry of real estate,as a capital-intensive sector,has the characters of high value and long construction and development cycle,neither the developers nor the buyers thus can support without borrowing funds.Therefore,to study the impacts of real estate credit on real estate price has the significance of realization.The research subjects of this dissertation are divided in two: the amount of credit and the price of credit.The methods of this dissertation are theoretical and empirical researches.Firstly,through the Capital Asset Pricing Model(CAPM)and A-G Model,the dissertation theoretically explains that the credit expansion is the reason of real estate price soaring up;then analyze the impacts of banking credit on real estate price from the angles of transmission mechanism and pathway.The dissertation chooses the monthly data of Chinese real estate price,the total amount of real estate credit,real estate development loan,individual housing loan and five-year lending rate,studying the impacts of real estate credit on its price by VAR method.The results show that the scale of credit and lending rate are the causes of the high price: when credit expands lead the price to go up,the lending rate increases lead the price to go down.Finally,we use Variance Decomposition and VAR impulse to analyze the fluctuation and influence extent to housing price that caused by the scale of credit and lending rate.The dissertation provides some suggestions in accordance with the previous theoretical and empirical analysis that government should to use interest rate to adjust the industry of real estate,and the banks should to optimize credit configuration.