The Establishment And Application Of The Web Consumer Confidence Index

The consumer confidence index measures consumer satisfaction with the current economic situation and the expectation of future economic situation,which is closely linked with the overall economic situation of the country or region.According to the theory of consumer behavior,consumers generally have consumer demand and retrieve relevant information before making final purchase decision.With the development of the Internet,residents often use search engines to search for information before purchasing decision-making.Therefore,the search quantity of the web search keywords can reflect consumers' attention to a certain thing in real time and thus reflect Consumer confidence.Based on the theory of consumer behavior,this paper analyzes the theoretical basis and feasibility of using web search data to reflect consumer confidence,and then uses the scope of the choice of words to select and determine the keywords.Because of the usage habits of Chinese Internet users for search engine parties,this article chooses to use the corresponding keyword search volume data collected by Baidu Index as the data source of this article.By analyzing the relation and leading lag between the keyword search volume and consumer confidence index,we filter out the appropriate keywords and use the time series association rules to find out the relationship between the filtered keywords and consumer confidence index.The analysis shows that there is certain regularity between the fluctuation of selected keywords and the fluctuation of consumer confidence index.Therefore,based on these related keywords,this article uses the improved principal component analysis method to build the web consumer confidence index.Through comparative analysis,we found that there is a more consistent relationship between web consumer confidence index and consumer confidence index.Finally,we discuss the predictive effect of the web consumer confidence index on the macroeconomic indicators,select the CPI and the financial revenue indicators,construct the neural network model respectively,and find out that the web consumer confidence index can predicted CPI and financial revenue effictiontly.Therefore,this paper argues that the online consumer confidence index can basically supplement and expand the traditional consumer confidence index,and provide new ideas for measuring macroeconomic development.