A Study On Correlation Between Web Search Data And Consumer Confidence Index

With the development of Internet technology and Chinese fixed network andmobile network popularization, the way people access to information is developingfrom traditional channel to the information channel. Surfing the Internet has becomemore and more popular. Network life has become an indispensable part of people’sdaily life. Massive network data can be formed in the moment and massive networkdata in such continuous generation and update. If the Internet mass data transformedinto useful information, it will bring tremendous social and economic benefits.However, as the amount of the network data is astonishing and data formats isvarious and scattered, Network data utilization rate is not high. As search enginesand information technology related function becomes more powerful, querytechnology has made people get their required data and information at low cost in ashort time. And they could decide to get a fine-grained level of network data. Peoplewant search and access the information they need to become more rapid and efficient.The Internet search engine makes it possible. It has become a window for people toretrieve information on the internet.Whether through the fixed network or the mobile network, the search enginewill according to people’s intent to provide the needed information, and screeninformation to help them to get consumption, education, health and social all walksof network life information. Consumers search engine gets its information needsthrough the Internet. The search engine will automatically put their retrieval, accessand browse the entire process record at the same time. And these traces consumersleft on the Internet reflect consumer purchase intention, the psychological ofpurchase and consumer confidence most truly. Before consumers buy something in the market, they may make a series of visits and investigations. Consumers collectthe information about their products or service’s brand, price, quality, customerservice and the use of experience on the network, which provides the necessaryinformation support. That is to say the consumer before making a purchase decision,hundreds of millions of Consumer Intentions and consumer confidence can beestimated from the consumer’s web search. So there may be a correlation betweenthe network search data and consumer confidence. We can measure a lot ofconsumer behavior and consumer psychology through consumers search the networkdata.Consumer confidence index is an important economic index of modern socialand economic life. It not only can be used to monitor the main economic variables inthe future, but also can be used to forecast the volatility of the market. Economistshave regarded the consumer confidence index as one of the sensitive economicindices of national economic cycle change and monitor the normal economicdevelopment. There is a very close link between the consumer confidence index andthe important macroeconomic index. It can accurately predict and grasp of the wholeeconomic development trend in the future. Because of the consumer confidenceindex has such an important role, an in-depth study on the consumer price index isparticularly important. The consumer confidence index data mainly from thegovernment and related statistical departments. These data often have a certainperiod delay. And the authenticity and accuracy of data collection often bequestioned. Even if the forecast method is used and the prediction tool is veryadvanced, is also very difficult to eliminate the interference and error large and getthe forecasting result more accurate satisfaction. This greatly limits the effectivenessof consumer confidence index monitoring. And through the Internet search data topredict the social economic activities, has become a hot topic in the domestic andforeign scholars. According to the constitution and influence factors of the consumer confidence index, we determine the approximate scope of network search keywordselection using range selection method. Then we use the Google trends data fromGoogle provides the analysis of function, obtain Google search engine on theInternet search data, the correlation coefficient with time difference correlationanalysis method to determine the related to consumer confidence web searchkeywords and the leading order. The time series model of network search data andthe consumer confidence index is established, further analysis of the consumerconfidence index. Through the empirical analysis shows that there is a significantcorrelation between the internet search data and consumer confidence index. And thenetwork data can quantify and predict the consumer confidence index. Because ofthe change of Internet search data changes advance to the change of consumerconfidence. The Internet search data has a description and prediction ability onconsumer confidence index to a certain extent.