The Difference Of Monetary Policy's Impact On Industries In China

As China's economy enters the "new normal" stage,some unreasonable factors in the economic structure gradually emerge,and the national economy is facing structural adjustment.Using economic policies to adjust industrial layout and optimize industrial structure has become the main means to promote economic growth.Monetary policy is one of the important means to regulate and control the macro economy.However the "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy aimed at the total control may aggregate the the imbalance of industrial development and make "the strong stronger and the weak weaker",which is not conducive to economic restructuring and transformation.Therefore,it is of great significance to pay attention to the differential effects of monetary policy on industries.This paper selects the quarterly data from 1999 to the second quarter of 2018,and empirically analyzes the differential effects of monetary policy on industries from three perspectives.The first perspective is to select M2 and the weighted average interest rate of interbank borrowing for 7 days as the agent variable of monetary policy,and use the SVAR model to research on the dynamic differential impact of monetary policy on various industries.The results show that the M2 change has the greatest impact on the primary industry,followed by the secondary industry,and has the least impact on the tertiary industry.The impact of interest rate on the secondary industry is the largest,followed by the tertiary industry,the impact on the primary industry is the smallest.The second perspective is based on the previous part of the research.The pulse "obstruction" separation technology based on SVAR model is used to identify and compare the independent effects of monetary policy transmission channels on various industries.It is beneficial for deeply analyzing how monetary policy acts on various industries through transmission channels.The results show that,for the primary industry,the independent influence effect of each transmission channel from the largest to the smallest is credit channel,exchange rate channel,asset price channel,interest rate channel.For the secondary industry,the independent influence effect of each transmission channel is the largest to the smallest: interest rate channel,asset price channel,exchange rate channel and credit channel.For the tertiary industry,the independent effects of the transmission channels are credit channel,asset price channel,interest rate channel and exchange rate channel from the largest to the smallest.The third perspective is to use the NARDL model to empirically analyze the long-and short-term differential effects of monetary policy on various industries.The results show that the positive and negative changes of M2 and interest rate have different effects on the secondary industry in both the long term and the short term.The positive and negative changes of M2 and interest rate have different effects on the tertiary industry in both the long and short term.The positive and negative changes of M2 have no effect on the long and short term difference in the primary industry,while the positive and negative changes of interest rate have effect on the short-term difference in the primary industry.In addition,it is found that the impact of tightening monetary policy on industries is greater than that of expansionary monetary policy.