Analysis On Development Strategy Of Agricultural Products E-Commerce Supply Chain Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid popularization of the Internet and the development of information technology,e-commerce has gradually become a new form of promoting economic and social development.All industries have explored the best mode of combining themselves with electronic commerce.As the core engine of developing agricultural economy and promoting agricultural transformation,electronic commerce plays an important role in improving the income of rural residents and eliminating the two element structure of urban and rural areas.Thus,e-commerce provides new ideas and techniques to solve the problems existing in the traditional agricultural supply chain.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to use e-commerce to develop the supply chain of agricultural products.Based on the theories of supply chain,agricultural product supply chain and electronic commerce,this thesis uses system dynamics tools to construct the system dynamics model of the supply chain of agricultural products,and simulates the research model based on Vensim software.In addition,this thesis gives strategies in the supply of agricultural products by combining the research conclusions and the imitation results.The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly,the background and significance of the research are introduced,and this thesis gives the research innovation points based on the domestic and foreign research review.in addition,the basic concepts and theoretical bases related to the research are expounded.Secondly,the system dynamics theory is used to analyze the inner parts of farmers,suppliers,distributors,logistics enterprises and the government.The operation mechanism,the main influence factors and the internal relations between the various factors has obtained based on system dynamic model,and this thesis determined the boundary of the system.Then,through the causal analysis of the production,processing,sales and transportation of agricultural products in the supply,this thesis determined the cause and effect diagram based on the causality analysis of the system and the model of the supply chain system of agricultural products is drawn.Finally,the variables in the related data are quantified,the model variable equation is established,and the system dynamics model of the supply chain of agricultural products is constructed.In addition,this thesis also takes the Fengjie navel orange e-business supply chain as the research object,collects and deals with the data needed in the model,established the specific functions of the variables in the model,and simulates the model by the system dynamics software Vensim,In order to verify the feasibility and operability of the system dynamics model,the thesis tested the variables systematically.The research conclusions shows that the seller's increase in the network platform investment can effectively expand the market demand,and the contract price between suppliers and vendors has a significant impact on the output value of the navel orange e-commerce supply chain.When the government increases the investment in the logistics infrastructure,the investment has a significant effect on the output value of the navel orange electronic business chain.but the promotion effect gradually weakened in the certain stage.Finally,this thesis puts forward some suggestions on the development of e-business supply chain according to the simulation results and analysis,in the aspects of market demand,coordination optimization of each node in supply chain,information management and logistics system.