Research On Factors Of Prepayment And Default

At a time when consumption is fully upgraded,the consumption consciousness and consumption concept of the younger generation are gradually changing,and credit consumption is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.Credit consumption has become the primary payment method for the masses,especially the younger generation,so Internet finance has also emerged.Undoubtedly,as an Internet finance company,it is hoped that the loss of the loan contract will be minimized under the premise of compliance management.When the loan contract is established,the common three types of events are customer prepayment,customer default and normal repayment.Therefore,this paper has carried out corresponding research on the influencing factors of prepayment and default behavior by using the Cox model for these three types of behaviors.This paper firstly uses the Lasso-Mcp regularization method to screen 150 variables,and then uses the Cox model to study the factors of prepayment and default behavior,and then obtains the characteristics of factors affecting customers' prepayment and default.Two categories of information about customers: one is personal credit history information(the number of historical serious overdue),whether the individual is valued for credit(the first credit card time or whether there is a mortgage),and the other one is a comprehensive evaluation score for user credit.Secondly,under the competitive risk model,the cumulative incidence of the two types of behaviors during the loan period is obtained.It reveals that when the P2 P enterprise enters the stable operation period,it needs to deploy the customer's prepayment behavior in advance,because in the medium and long-term loans.The customer's prepayment behavior is more likely to occur than the default behavior and its growth rate is also faster.Finally,the conclusions of the empirical analysis are combined to explain the future development of China's Internet finance industry.