A Research On Balance Of Income And Expenditure Of Basic Endowment Insurance Funds For Urban Enterprise Employees Based On System Dynamics

In China,The basic endowment insurance system of urban enterprise employees consists of social account and individual account and pertains to partial funding accumulation system.With the aging of the population,It is more and more serious tha that the basic endowment insurance funds of enterprise employees are not able to pay off,Moreover,the slowdown in economic growth,the large scale of implicit debt,and the low return on investment will affect the balance of the fund's revenue and expenditure,which in turn will affect the sustainable operation of the pension insurance system.At present,the fund's income,expenditure and accumulated balance have maintained a steady growth trend,but the growth rate of expenditure is faster than the growth rate of income,and the pressure on the balance of funds has begun to appear.Therefore,paying attention to the balance of income and expenditure of basic endowment insurance funds for urban enterprise employees is of great significance to guarantee the sustainability of the basic endowment insurance system for enterprise employees.Endowment insurance is a complex and dynamic social and economic system,which presents the characteristics of complexity,dynamics and uncertainty.Therefore,it is necessary to solve the problem of balance of income and expenditure of pension funds.Based on this,this paper attempts to study the balance of income and expenditure of basic pension insurance funds for enterprise employees by means of system dynamics.The specific research ideas and research contents are as follows:First,I will use the principles of system dynamics to clarify the relationship between the internal income of the pension system and the expenditure,and the relationship between the pension system and the population and economic system.On this basis,I will construct a mathematical model of the system dynamics of the income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban enterprise employees.Forecast the income and expenditure of basic pension insurance funds for enterprise employees in 2018-2050.Then I will change the system parameters to see if the fund's income and expenditure status has changed after the system parameters are changed.Finally,based on the experimental results,effective countermeasures are proposed.The general research ideas of this paper are as follows:The first chapter,This paper introduces the research background and significance of this paper,literature review and brief review at home and abroad,definition of related concepts,research ideas and research contents,research methods,innovations and deficiencies.The second chapter is the theoretical basis.This chapter will introduce the theoretical basis of this paper,namely,system dynamics theory,public finance theory and pension fund balance theory.The third chapter is about the current situation and problems of the balance of income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance funds of urban enterprise employees in China.This chapter introduces the current situation of the balance of income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund of enterprise employees in China,and then analyzes the problems existing behind it and lays the foundation for the adjustment of the system parameters.The fourth chapter analyzes the fund's balance of payments by using system dynamics theory.To clarify the relationship between income and expenditure within the pension system and the interaction between the pension system and the population and economic systemThe fifth chapter is the part of empirical research using system dynamics.It establishes the system dynamics model of the income and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban enterprise employees,simulates the balance of fund balance in 2018-2050 under the current system,and adjusts the system parameters.Observe its impact on future fund balances.The sixth chapter is the research conclusions and policy recommendations.Undertake the above analysis and research,draw the conclusions of this paper,and propose effective and feasible policy recommendations based on the research results.The core point of this paper is that pension insurance is a complex system.To achieve the balance of pension funds,the system needs to maintain the coordination of income and expenditure.The external needs of the pension system need to be related to the population system and economic system.The innovation of this paper lies in the use of system dynamics to clarify the relationship between the three systems of pension insurance system,population system and economic system.Based on the theoretical logic of system dynamics,a simulation model is constructed to simulate the long-term financial balance of the basic endowment insurance for enterprise employees.