The Analysis Of Optimal Retirement Age Based On The Balance Of Social Pooling Account For Basic Pension Insurance

Confronted with rapid development of aging population and the serious situation of pension debt gap gradually expand,experts put forward many solutions,which mainly includes: delay retirement age;increase the old-age insurance payment rate;reduce the retiree pensions;increase government subsidies,etc.However,due to the welfare rigidity characteristics,the enforceability of the policy,the sustainability of the financial investment and other reasons,which lead to delay retirement age becomes government's preferred solution.In terms of delaying retirement,the government has begun to take reform,and put forward the basic ideas of "small step".But at what speed,what kind of path delay refund,what is the optimal retirement age of all kinds of social groups,etc.,have become a problem of refund policy reform which to need to be handled with.Throughout most of the existing literature,from the Angle of theory discussion,there is not enough deeply quantitative analysis,or discussion related to whether there exists significant difference in the current legal and retirement age to the classification of different social groups.Furthermore,the social influence and economic influence degree after delaying retirement are unclear.Based on this,this article holds the attitude from the policy makers and practitioners-position of the country,from the angle of pension funds macro delay retirement policy,pension insurance society to plan as a whole in fully ensure the account balance,on the basis of the estimated target period(2016-2040)of different social groups respectively the optimal retirement age,and according to the evolution of dynamic optimal retirement age of simulate the practical path.Due to estimate the optimal retirement age's basic starting point is to keep the society of basic pension insurance to plan as pooling account balance of payments.So,we need to build all kinds of social groups of pension insurance fund balance model before estimating,and get the balance of payments firstly.However,among all the parameters in the model of balance of payments,the expend population and retirement population is most important,which need to be estimated in advance.So this article follows that "to obtain the future population data,to build a balance model of pension funds,to solve the optimal retirement age",thought for empirical analysis.First of all,collecting target period of demographic data by using life table's basic principle.Take the fifth and sixth census points gender age in the population data as the foundation,making the compilation of the population life table of base year.Through the link of the population average life expectancy,take platform between the life table of foundation year and forecast life table;prepare the future year's continuous dynamic life table,in order to gain more accurate information.Suppose "comprehensive two children" policy of birth parameters,using the variable parameter shift algorithm model to estimate the future gender's population.On this basis,set the parameters of old-age insurance system's coverage rate,capture rate and unemployment rate,in order to estimate population of future age of pension insurance.According to the structure of the population proportion and the survival age of the limit parameters,estimating retired population of the age of the future,thus make a data basis for the overall account balance model.Furthermore,constructing account balance actuarial model of society pension insurance.Basic pension insurance of pay the crowd mainly includes: male and female workers,male and female cadres,male and female social ginseng protect personnel(including individual industrial and commercial households and personnel of flexible obtain employment,etc.).According to policy of pension and payment,build the actuarial model account income respectively.According to the retired worker's work time and retirement time,pension for the elderly is subdivided into "the old man 1","the old man 2","middleman" and "new man".Overall spending accounts include: "the old man 1" fundamental annuities,"the old man 2" and "middleman" fundamental annuities and transitional annuities,as well as the "new man" fundamental annuities.According to the standard,pensions,respectively build the four groups of account spending an actuarial model.Then,according to the principle of pension insurance payments' balance,estimating the optimal retirement age.In this paper,starting from the concrete national conditions of the country,take two kinds of feasible return scenario into consideration that is: "men and women delay retirement at the same time” and "women delay retirement first".In both of these scenarios,respectively according to short-term account balance principle(i.e.,balance of year)and long-term balance principle,(i.e.,target period balance),I designed two types of pattern which are "progressive" and "one ".For "one size fits all" pattern,we directly solve the optimal retirement age of all kinds of groups.For a "progressive" pattern,take the target period dynamic optimal sequence of retirement age as estimation results,fitting for the specific implement path delay refund.Finally,I draw the conclusions in this paper are as follows:(1)"one size fits all" type of refund,no matter from the reform efforts,or members of the community of expectations tolerance,is slightly hasty;(2)in terms of the highest delay retirement age during the period of all groups,they are all not satisfy assumption that the highest retirement age is 65 years old;(3)at the beginning of delay and refund scheme,the delayed return velocity should not be too fast,maintain 1 years old / 5 year-2 years old / 3 years;(4)after increase the government's financial subsidies,the refund policy can be carried out later;(5)improve the contribution rate of society and average wage growth rate can effectively improve the refund policy,slow delay back pace;(6)in the situation of "women delay retirement first",the men's delay retirement age does not lead to fierce influence on women's.All in all,this article is based on the macro level of the country,closely combine the two hot issues of population aging: pay delay retirement pension reform and the pressure,to ensure the pension insurance to plan as a whole accounts balanced,scientifically and rationally estimate dynamic optimal retirement age of the society among various groups,and fitting for the "progressive" delay retirement path,which provide theoretical value and reference for delay refund policy reform.