Research On The Basic Pension Insurance Fund Balance Of Liaoning Province:Based On System Dynamics Simulation

This study takes the simulation software AnyLogic6.4.1as a research platform, use system dynamics simulation method to study the basic pension insurance fund balance of Liaoning Province. In this paper, by the analysis of the main targets of the basic pension insurance fund revenue and expenditure, determine the variables, parameters, and the structural relationship between them. Build the basic pension insurance fund forecasting model of Liaoning Province. Carry out the current policy remains unchanged, adjusts the payment proportion of the funds, investment rate of return and postpone the retirement ager simulation experiments. Study finds that, under the conditions of the current policy remains unchanged, the fund begins to gradually reduce in the2018and becomes negative in the2024, this trend is more and more serious till2035, and fund gap will reach24930.88hundred million Yuan, this paper individually adjusts the payment proportion of the Fund’s, investment rate of return, retirement age and mixed to adjusts the three parameters, to forecast the basic pension insurance fund revenue and expenditure changes under different policy conditions. Finally find a more scientific and rational policy portfolio, to achieve the target slight surplus of the basic pension insurance fund of Liaoning Province.According to the prediction results of the optimization experiments, this paper put forward increasing the fund’s investment rate of return, postponing the retirement age gender-specific and multi-stage and adjusting the payment proportion three countermeasures, to ensure achieve the target slight surplus of the basic pension insurance fund of Liaoning Province during2012-2035years.