The Study On The Influence Of China's RMB Exchange Rate Volatility To Trade Balance

As the international power,the stability of the trade relationship between China and the United States,plays a decisive role in the development of the world economy.However,with the recent use of the "301 clause" by the United States,the trade war between China and the United States has gradually intensified.This paper,taking the "J curve effect" of exchange rate fluctuations as the breakthrough point,divides the RMB exchange rate,from July 2005 to December 2017,into the RMB appreciation interval and the RMB depreciation interval,and the empirical analysis is carried out by using the distribution lag model,the vector autoregressive model and least squares with breakpoints model respectively.On the one hand,it is confirmed that the exchange rate fluctuation has the "reverse J curve effect" on the international trade balance of China and the United States in the range of RMB appreciation,and the lag period is 9 months.On the other hand,it is confirmed that the exchange rate fluctuation has a "positive J curve effect" on the international trade balance of China and the United States in the range of RMB devaluation,and the lag period is 7 months.In addition,by comparing and analyzing two "J curve effects",the conclusion is drawn that the marketization reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is effective.Finally,we add the catastrophe point regression model and find that the financial crisis in 2008 has a disturbing effect on the path of the "J curve effect".