Study On The Economic Growth Error Of Prefecture-level Cities In China

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has witnessed rapid growth for more than 40 years.In this era of rapid development of knowledge economy,the pursuit of accurate macroeconomic data is worthy of attention.As an indicator of a country's economic development,GDP has a direct impact on whether the measurement of economic growth is accurate.Accurate data statistics are a true reflection of the level of development in a region and the living standard of the people,an important basis for government departments to formulate policies,and an important reference for scholars to conduct academic research.However,the error of China's GDP has always been objective,and it has always been a hot topic,causing domestic and foreign scholars to discuss this aspect,so the study on the error of economic growth is very necessary.In this paper,NPP_VIIRS,the global remote sensing data of night light provided by the website of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration(NOAA),is used as the proxy variable of GDP,and the error value of China's economic growth is observed through comparative analysis with the official GDP value.In order to calculate the error value of economic growth,this paper mainly makes the following four aspects of analysis: 1.(2)directly compare the light data with the official statistical GDP data,and calculate the difference between the average economic growth rate of prefectural cities and the average growth rate of light data in China from 2013 to 2015;(3)using light data to estimate the actual GDP value of the year,the estimated real GDP value and the official statistics of the GDP value is compared,get China's 291 prefectural city official statistics of GDP and light data estimated the difference between the real GDP table;(4)in the calculation of economic growth there is indeed error,this paper considered a few sources of error,the final choice from the local government leadership background characteristics this Angle to analyze the cause of economic growth error.By taking the lighting data as the proxy variable of GDP,this paper comes to the following conclusions :(1)it is found that the difference values of the three economic belts in the east,the middle and the west show an increasing trend in turn,and the error of economic growth in the less developed regions is greater than that in the developed regions.(2)from the perspective of prefecture-level cities,the research results show that most prefecture-level cities have an overestimated GDP.This result also shows that the more grassroots areas,the higher the probability of statistical errors.(3)by looking for the causes of the economic growth errors of prefecture-level cities from the perspective of the background characteristics of local leaders,this paper finds that the tenure of the municipal party secretary of prefecture-level cities,internal promotion or external transfer of the municipal party committee have influences on the economic growth errors.The longer the tenure of the municipal party secretary,the smaller the error will be.Leaders who are promoted from one place have a smaller error in economic growth than those who are transferred from other places.